福布斯专家们近日对2015年的美国房市进行了预测，一起来看一看（后附英文原文）：

1.价格上涨将更慢

2014年房屋价格涨势放缓显著，预计将持续到2015年。2014年1月至9月，二手房价格上涨减速。S&P/凯斯-席勒数据显示，2013年12月比上年同期价格增长10.8%，而2014年9月同上年同期相比仅增长4.8%。

可以说，放缓的住房库存水平和投资者从房市中退出压制了住房价格的升级。更深层次的解释是，这种变化代表了市场上的根本性转变：房市已走出了快速恢复阶段，进入一个新的常态。

在全国范围内，房价格已接近2005年春季水平。Zillow预计2015年房价将仅上涨2.5%，Realtor.com预测房价年度涨幅为4%-5%。

2.承受能力将进一步恶化

不幸的是，价格上涨放缓并不意味着购房市场会更加实惠。事实上，Trulia首席经济学家科尔科（Jed Kolko）的预测与此完全相反。他表示，即使今年房价上涨不会太快，但明年的上涨幅度会高于收入的增长。他说：“在同一时间，更高的抵押贷款利率也会消弱（人们的住房）承受能力。”

Realtor.com预测，2015年住房负担将增加5%-10%。

3.购买狂潮将减弱

这对普通人是个好消息：由于库存量、贷款以及投资者三方面的变化，2015年在购房过程中不会过于紧张。

由于价格上涨，2014年，越来越多的人出售住房，10月，现有住房月供应量为5.1，高于去年同期的5.2%。价格上涨意味着市场上的交易减少，对投资者的吸引力也减少，事实证明，他们正退出这一市场。来自美国全国房地产经纪人协会的最新数据显示，10月份个人投资者所购买的房屋占15%，低于去年同期的19%。

Zillow首席经济学家汉弗莱斯（Stan Humphries）表示，自2012年底房市恢复以来，购房者面对的是库存偏低、信贷紧缩、拍卖战以及来自投资者和全款购房者的激烈竞争。

不过明年的情况会有所转机，房屋库存量将会上升，竞争压力将转移到卖家。汉弗莱斯表示，这个更平衡的市场将对每一个人都变得更为通畅，无论是买家还是卖家。

4.抵押贷款利率将上升

美国抵押贷款银行家协会预计，2014年年底利率将上升到5%；房地美（Freddie Mac）首席经济学家诺莎福特（Frank Nothaft）预计为4.5%。随着美联储发出QE3即将结束的信息，美国抵押贷款银行家协会表示，有充足的理由相信2015年中期短期利率将升息，并推动抵押贷款利率的上调。

不过，去年经济学家预计，2014年底抵押贷款利率将达到5%，但根据房地美的数据，30年期固定利率抵押贷款截止上周仅为3.93%，低于去年同期的4.42%，2014年其他类的利率也分别持平或下降。

5.千禧人将反超X一代成购房者

到2015年年底，新千禧代（35岁以下）将取代X一代（35-50岁）成为美国购房者的最大群体。汉弗莱斯说， 大约42%千禧人表示在未来一至五年内有购房的打算，高于X一代的31％。 这意味着年轻人并非对购房不感兴趣，而是他们推迟了结婚和生儿育女。随着这一代人的成长，他们将成为住房市场不可忽视的力量。

6.租金涨幅将超过房屋价格增长

科尔科预计，2015年，许多25-34岁的年轻人会建立自己的家庭，但他们会选择租房取代购房。在某种程度上，这种预测基于人口因素（如婚姻、孩子等），另一方面这些年轻人需要为首付存款，这些因素将继续推动多户家庭住房的需求和租金的继续上涨。

汉弗莱斯预测，2015年租金将上涨3.5%，超过了他的预计2.5%的年住房价格涨幅。反过来，这种情况可能会推动一些千禧人成为买主。 他说，由于租房者的成本不断上升，固定抵押金的诱惑力和更稳定的住房市场将吸引更多租房者进入买房市场。

7.多户型将占主导地位

科尔科指出，今年，已经看到了多户型房屋的兴建热潮（特别是在今年下半年）。与此同时，2014年独立屋建设（677000幢）和新屋销售（458000）均仅达到其正常水平的半数。

预测显示，2015年独立屋开工（全国住宅建设者协会预计为837000，房利美为783,000，富国银行为770000）和新屋销售（全美房地产经纪人协会预计为620000，全国住宅建设者协会为547000）都会增长。

不过，科尔科警告称，明年新屋建设和销售的数字可能会令人失望。 Trulia的研究表明，越来越多的人会尝试在明年出售自己的住房（Realtor.com预测，二手房销售2015年将增长8％）。这些二手房进入市场可能会打压价格昂贵的新屋的需求。

科尔科指出，独立屋空置率仍会接近衰退时的高点，这很可能进一步压低独立屋的兴建。因此，建筑商在未来的一年将继续满足公寓、多户房屋的强劲需求。

8.建筑商将转向更便宜的住房

近年来，建筑商选择兴建更少、更昂贵的房屋，而不是更多、更便宜的住房。这一趋势被经济复苏期间有限的土地供应所趋动，造成新建昂贵的住房和便宜的二手房之间价格的差异，使得自经济衰退以来每年的新屋销售在450000的范围内徘徊。

多数分析师认为，2015年新屋销售将突破50万大关。汉弗莱斯表示，他希望建筑商们会努力推动新屋的出售，为达到这一标准，他们不得不出售那些更便宜的住房。放宽信贷条件，并让更多贷款人愿意借钱给信用低于640的购房者，可以帮助那些相对便宜的住房找到买家。

9.止赎房将与衰退前水平持平

总部设在加州的数据公司RealtyTrac数据显示，从2014年1月至11月，全美共有1256070止赎申请，与上年同期的1516332相比下降了约17.2％。公司副总裁布基斯特（Daren Blomquist）表示，今年到目前为止，每月的止赎房数量都在下降。他预计，2015年止赎房屋会下降到危机前水平。

10.市场将被基本面驱动

明年的住房市场将更多地被经济基本面驱动，如就业增长、收入、家庭形式，而不是宏观经济因素。抵押贷款利率和价格的恢复在很长一段时间推动了全国房地产市场的发展。

11.通配符：全球地缘政治

眼下美国以外的地缘政治因素有助于保持抵押贷款利率的下降。汉弗莱斯表示，衰弱的中国和欧洲、俄罗斯和乌克兰的局势以及伊朗、核外交等都推动了美元的升值。他说，更广泛的地缘政治风险有助于帮助普通美国房主。

原文：

Housing Outlook 2015: 11 Predictions From The Experts

It’s been an odd year for the housing market. It kicked off with the ‘Polar Vortex,’ blamed for slowing home sales in the early part of the year. As 2014 draws to a close, the National Association of Realtorsexpects sales of previously owned homes to fall short of 2013’s total, while the latest monthly data on new homes show sales were up just 1.8% in October from a year earlier. Meanwhile, price gains for previously owned homes have slowed significantly. Still, builder confidence in the market for newly constructed, single-family homes has been high for six straight months.

What’s going on? The confusing signals actually have a straightforward explanation: the housing market has been shifting out of rapid recovery and into a more stable phase that economists are calling the new normal. Here are 11 things housing experts expect to see in housing in 2015:

1. Prices will rise more slowly
Housing price gains slowed dramatically in 2014 and are expected to continue on that trajectory in 2015. Price growth for previously owned homes decelerated for nine straight months from January through September 2014. To get a sense of just how much has changed in a year, compare December 2013’s 10.8% year-over-year price growth with September 2014’s 4.8% year-over-year change (S&P/Case-Shiller data). Easing housing inventory levels and the exit of investors from the market are helping to put the brakes on home price escalation. At a deeper level, this change represents a fundamental shift in the market: we’ve moved out of the rapid recovery phase and into a new normal. Nationally, prices are near their spring 2005 levels; the 20 cities Case-Shiller tracks are about 15% to 17% off their mid-summer 2006 peaks. “During the early years – roughly 2012 to 2014 – the rebound effect drove the recovery,” says Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia. “Now, though, the rebound effect is fading.” Zillow predicts home prices will rise just 2.5% in 2015; Realtor.com predicts an annual gain of 4%-5%.

2. Affordability will worsen
Unfortunately, slowing prices don’t mean that home ownership will become more affordable. In fact, Kolko predicts quite the opposite. “Even though prices won’t rise as fast next year as they did this year, they will probably rise faster than incomes,” he says. (Incomes in 2013 rose just 1.8% in nominal terms, he notes.) “At the same time, higher mortgage rates also erode affordability.” By Kolko’s estimate, homes are just 3% undervalued now, leaving little room for them to rise without becoming overvalued. Realtor.com predicts that home affordability will decrease by 5%-10% in 2015.

3. The buying frenzy will fade

Good news for regular people: the homebuying process should get a little less hectic in 2015, thanks to eased inventory and credit plus the exit of investors from the market. We’ve already begun to see the shift. As prices rose in 2014, more people put their homes up for sale. (In October, the stock of available housing stood at a 5.1-month supply, 5.2% higher than a year before.) Rising prices mean that fewer bargains are left on the market, which makes housing less attractive to investors, and they are indeed exiting the market. (The latest numbers from the National Association of Realtors show that in October, individual investors purchased 15% of homes, down from 19% in October 2013.) “Since the recovery began in earnest in late 2012, buyers have really taken it on the chin, forced to contend with low inventory, tight credit, bidding wars and intense competition from investors and all-cash buyers,” says Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow. “But next year we’ll start to see things really turn around. More inventory will continue to come online, putting the competitive pressure on sellers for a change. This more balanced market will be smoother sailing for everyone, both for buyers in search of a competitive advantage, and for sellers who turn around and become buyers themselves.”

4. Mortgage interest rates will rise
The Mortgage Bankers’ Association predicts that rates will rise to 5% by the end of 2015; Freddie Mac’s chief economist Frank Nofthaft expects a more cautious average of 4.5% in 2015. With the Fed signaling that QE3 (the third round of quantitative easing since the recession) is over, the MBA says there is plenty of reason to believe a short-term fund rate hike could come by mid-2015, pushing mortgage interest rates up with it. Still, last year economists predicted that mortgage interest rates would hit 5% by the end of 2014—and yet the average rate for a conventional 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage stood at just 3.93% last week, compared to 4.42% one year earlier, according to Freddie Mac. For most of 2014 interest rates were flat or declining. A great reminder that economists can make their predictions, but we wouldn’t recommend that anyone bet the farm on them.

5. Millennials overtake Gen X as homebuyers
By the end of 2015, Millennials (those under the age of 35) will overtake Gen X (35-50 years old) to become the largest group of homebuyers in the U.S., predicts Zillow’s Humphries. “Roughly 42% of Millennials say they want to buy a home in the next one to five years, compared to just 31% of Generation X,” he says. “The lack of home-buying activity from Millennials thus far is decidedly not because this generation isn’t interested in homeownership, but instead because younger Americans have been delaying getting married and having children, two key drivers in the decision to buy that first home. As this generation matures, they will become a home-buying force to be reckoned with.”

6. Rent increases will outpace home value growth

In 2015 many 25- 34-year-olds (again, those Millennials) will form new households, but instead of buying they’ll rent, predicts Trulia’s Kolko. In part, this forecast is based on demographic factors (marriage, kids, cited above) and in part it’s because many of them will still need to save for a down payment. These factors will continue to push the demand for multi-family housing (see below)–and rents will keep rising. In fact, Humphries forecasts that rents will rise 3.5% in 2015, outpacing his predicted 2.5% for annual home price gains. This, in turn, may push some of those Millennials to become buyers (see above). “As renters’ costs keep going up, I expect the allure of fixed mortgage payments and a more stable housing market will entice many more otherwise content renters into the housing market,” Humphries says.

7. Multifamily will reign
This year we’ve seen a boom in multi-family construction (especially in the latter part of the year). Meanwhile, 2014′s single-family construction (at 677,000 for the year) and new home sales (at 458,000 for the year) are both just above half their normal levels, Kolko points out. Forecasts predict a boost in 2015 on groundbreakings of new single-family homes (NAHB: 837,000, Fannie Mae: 783,000, and Wells Fargo: 770,000), as well as new home sales (NAR: 620,000; NAHB: 547,000). But Kolko warns that next year’s numbers for both new construction and new home sales could disappoint. Trulia’s research indicates that more people will try to sell their homes next year (and Realtor.com predicts that existing, or previously owned, home sales will grow 8% in 2015). The entry of these previously owned homes onto the market could suppress the demand for more expensive newly constructed homes. As mentioned above, many Millennials forming their own households will need to save for a down payment before buying, so they’ll rent instead of buying new homes. Finally, Kolko points out that the vacancy rate for single-family homes is still near its recession high, which is likely to further depress construction of new single-family homes. So builders will continue to meet the demand for apartments–and multifamily housing could have another strong year.

8. Builders shift to cheaper homes
In recent years, builders have chosen to build fewer, more expensive homes instead of more, cheaper homes. The trend—driven in part by a limited supply of land during the recovery–has left a price gap between more expensive new homes and less expensive existing homes, keeping new home sales around or lower than the 450,000 per year mark since the recession. “In 2015 I expect builders to try to push above that ceiling on new home sales,” says Humphries. Most analysts agree that new home sales will top the 500,000 mark in 2015. “In order to do that they’re going to have to sell less expensive homes,” Humphries argues. Eased credit conditions, with more lenders willing to lend to people with credit scores below 640, should help some of these cheaper homes find buyers.

9. Foreclosures will match pre-recession levels
From January through November 2014, there were 1,256,070 foreclosure filings in the U.S., according to Irvine, Calif.-based data firm RealtyTrac, down about 17.2% from the same period the prior year, when there were 1,516,332 filings. “Every month so far this year we’ve been down from a year ago,” says Daren Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac. Only scheduled foreclosure auctions have seen a recent uptick, up 5% in November compared to one year earlier. The majority come from homes that have long been in the foreclosure process, with just a few newer properties in the mix. In 2015, watch for foreclosures to abate to pre-crisis levels, Blomquist predicts.

10. Markets driven by fundamentals

Next year the housing market will be driven more by underlying economic fundamentals–job growth, incomes, household formation–than by macro-economic factors such as national price crashes. Mortgage interest rates and price recovery have driven the housing market nationally for a long time now, notes Richardson. “Now we’re seeing that those factors aren’t nearly as important as local economics: how is the economy doing in Detroit, Baltimore, Denver,” she says.

11. The wildcard: global geopolitics
Right now geopolitical factors outside the U.S. are helping keep mortgage interest rates down at home. “Weakness in China and Europe have led to higher than normal interest in the dollar,” says Humphries, adding that concerns over the Russia-Ukraine situation as well as with Iran and nuclear diplomacy are pushing the yield on the dollar. Before 2008, the 36-year average mortgage interest rate was 9.2%, and never below 5.8%, Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman has said. And though the Fed has already scaled back its buying of mortgage-backed securities–which could affect interest rates–mortgage rates remain very low compared to historical rates. “Broader geopolitical risk turns out to really help the average American homeowner,” Humphries notes.

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