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Source: FuelFix

If crudeprices don’t bounce back by the end of the decade, an era of cheap oil couldconsolidate more oil-market power into the hands of a few low-cost producers inthe Middle East – raising concerns about energy security for oil-importingnations, the International Energy Agency says.

The IEA’sclosely watched World Energy Outlook, an annual report being released Tuesday,said the world’s reliance on Middle Eastern oil exports could “eventuallyescalate to a level last seen in the 1970s,” most profoundly in developingAsian countries like India and China, if oil prices stay low well beyond 2020and force higher-cost producers out of the market over the next 25 years. TheParis-based group, which consults 29 oil-importing nations, is a well-respectedoil-market forecaster.

“It would bea grave mistake to index our attention to energy security to changes in the oilprice,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a written statement. “Now isnot the time to relax. Quite the opposite: a period of low oil prices is themoment to reinforce our capacity to deal with future energy security threats.”

Plus, theworld’s increased dependence on cheap oil could crowd out $800 billion inpossible energy efficiency improvements in automobiles and aircraft by 2040,eliminating 15 percent of the efficiencies the IEA otherwise expects to see. Inother words, technological advancements and policy prescriptions for renewableresources might not make as big an impact in the market if fossil fuels arecheaper to buy.

But the IEA’sgloomy scenario, describing a world with cheap – and more tempting – oil until2040, was just one possible oil-market future considered by group.

For its “LowOil Price Scenario” to come true, the IEA said, global economic growth wouldhave to remain sluggish for years, violent uprisings in the Middle East wouldhave to subside and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries wouldhave to live with revenues falling by 25 percent in the pursuit of much highermarket share. In this lower-price scenario, the IEA predicted crude priceswould hover around $50 a barrel for the next five years and gradually increaseto $85 a barrel by 2040.

U.S. crudefell 42 cents to $43.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Monday.It has plunged 8.4 percent since Nov. 3 as fresh worries about global demandweigh on the market. Brent, the international standard, which is affected bythe roughly same market forces as U.S. crude, declined 43 cents to $47.19 abarrel on the ICE Futures Europe.

The IEA’smore moderate oil-price forecast predicts oil prices will rise to $80 a barrelby 2020, with further increases as global energy use grows by a third over thenext quarter of a century, as demand in India and China continue to surge.

All told, theIEA said, the world’s daily oil demand could grow by 900,000 barrels each year,though the projected climb of global demand to 103.5 million barrels a day in2040 could be offset if prices rise and governments adopt more policies pushingthe use of alternative fuels. In the United States, Japan and the EuropeanUnion, demand for crude could fall by a combined 10 million barrels a day overthat same time.

But the oilindustry will have to spend $630 billion a year just to keep production levelseven with output this year. The U.S. shale plays at the center of the nation’senergy production surge could reach their peak output levels by the early 2020sbefore they start to decline. “The current overhand in supply should give nocause for complacency about oil market security,” the IEA said.

The IEA saidIndia could eventually overtake China as the country with the highest demandfor energy, as the direction of the Chinese economy shifts from heavy steel andcement to growth in the services sectors, requiring 85 percent less energy foreach unit of future economic growth.

Meanwhile,the 240 million people living in India without access to electricity will drivethe largest surge in global energy demand, overtaking China as the world’slargest user of coal and boosting oil demand to 10 million barrels a day –roughly equivalent to China’s daily demand now. The IEA believes India willimport 90 percent of its oil by 2014, as its production “falls well behind thegrowth in demand.”

India’spolicymakers and private sector will have to draw $2.8 trillion to meet thenation’s energy needs over the next 25 years, and of that, about three fourthsof it would go toward building power plants and boosting electricity capacity.

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