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On Monday,both debt evaluation group Fitch Ratings and financial services firm RaymondJames said they had lowered their expected oil prices through 2016. Both groupsjoin a growing number of analysts who are calling oil’s problems too tough tosolve this year or next.
Fitch saidit’s now expecting U.S. oil to average $50 per barrel in 2016 and $60 perbarrel in 2017. The group also cut its Brent crude forecast, the globalbenchmark, to $55 per barrel in 2016 and $65 per barrel in 2017.
Raymond Jamessaid it’s pushing its 2015 U.S. oil forecast to an average of $50 per barrelthrough all of 2015 and $55 per barrel in 2016. That’s slightly higher thanFitch’s 2016 outlook, but $10 per barrel lower than the previous Raymond Jamesestimate.
“While thegap between oil supply and demand appears to have peaked at 3 million barrelsper day in Q215, the market is unlikely to balance until 2H16 at the earliestwhen it will still have to digest elevated oil stocks,” Fitch Ratings said in astatement Monday. “We have therefore effectively pushed back the slow recoverywe had assumed by one year and now include a modest price recovery only in 2017.”
Raymond Jamesoffered a similar assessment in a weekly note to clients: “Given the extent towhich the global oil market is likely to remain oversupplied for longer, we seeminimal room for oil prices to improve from current levels until mid to late 2016.”
Raymond Jamessaid its cut comes after Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq have continued to pumpever more oil despite low prices. The firm isn’t expecting a substantial oilrecovery until 2017 and 2018, barring a large supply disruption.
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