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Source: FuelFix

Competitionis growing in Russia’s biggest oil market. While Saudi Arabia’s encroachment inEurope is getting all the attention, the greatest threat comes from anotherpart of the Middle East — Iran.

Saudi Arabiahas started shipping crude to traditional Russian markets like Poland andSweden, but supplies to Europe from the world’s largest exporter won’t increaseby enough to reduce prices, said Texas-based consultant Stratfor. In contrast,a surge in Iranian exports after the lifting of sanctions could erode the valueof Russian shipments to the region as soon as next year, according to KBCAdvanced Technologies.

Toughercompetition in Europe, the destination for almost 70 percent of Russia’s oilexports, comes as the country is already battling recession. Oil and gas salesaccount for about half of government revenues and the commodity-price slump hasamplified the economic blow from international sanctions over Ukraine. Anincrease in Iranian exports following a nuclear deal with world powers couldmake matters worse.

“EasternEuropean refineries are geared to process Russian crude, the Urals blend, andthe closest sort to it would be Iranian oil,” Michael Nayebi-Oskoui, seniorenergy analyst for Middle East and South Asia at Stratfor, said by phone. ForSaudi shipments to push prices down, “they would have to be significantlyrerouted from Asia towards Europe, and we don’t see that happening,” he said.

BeforeSanctions

Iranianshipments to Europe came to about 600,000 barrels a day, or 17 percent of itsproduction, before sanctions blocked imports in 2012. Once restrictions arelifted, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh has said the National IranianOil Co.’s priority will be to regain its “lost share” of the market, regardlessof the impact on crude prices.

“Iran isgoing to be looking at marketing fairly aggressively,” David Fyfe, head ofmarket research and analysis at oil trader Gunvor Group Ltd., said by phonefrom Geneva. “They want to reclaim the foothold they previously had.”

Formercustomers in southern Europe already have shown an interest in resumingpurchases of Iranian oil. Hellenic Petroleum SA is “in the process ofinitiating a dialogue” with Iran’s national oil company, as are “most westerncompanies,” Vasilis Tsaitas, a company spokesman, said by e-mail. Hellenicoperates three of the five refineries in Greece with total capacity of 341,000barrels a day, according to its website.

IranianAlternative

“Iraniancrudes will definitively be again another alternative to consider” if sanctionsare lifted, Ignacio Rodriguez-Solano, a spokesman for Cia Espanola de PetroleosSAU, said by e-mail. The company runs three Spanish refineries with a totalcapacity of around 520,000 barrels a day.

Shipmentsfrom Iran used to account for as much as 30 percent of Hellenic’s crude needsand as much as 15 percent at CEPSA and were partly replaced by Russian exportsafter sanctions were imposed, according to the companies.

Therestoration of Iran’s supplies to Europe would pressure the price of Uralscrude, Russia’s main export grade, said Ehsan Ul-Haq, a senior analyst atconsultant KBC. In the Mediterranean, the discount of Urals to regionalbenchmark Dated Brent could drop to $1.50 a barrel next year from an average of80 cents so far in 2015, costing Russia about $420,000 a day in lost earnings,he said.

Brent crudewas $1.09 lower at $44.75 a barrel at 2:34 p.m. on the London-based ICE FuturesEurope exchange.

Wider Impact

While theloss of earnings in southern Europe would reach only about $153 million, orabout 0.4 percent of Russia’s projected oil and gas export revenues for theyear, the price impact could eventually spread to other markets includingnorthwest Europe, meaning final losses “could be much more,” Ul-Haq said.

Inflows ofIranian crude after sanctions are lifted are unlikely to significantly changethe situation in the European market, Russia’s Energy Minister AlexanderNovak told reporters on the sidelines of a Russian-Iranian intergovernmentalcommission in Moscow. “Iran used to be present in the market; when Iran isback, nothing extraordinary is going to happen,” he said.

FollowingSaudi Arabia’s entry into Poland, Igor Sechin, chief executive officer ofRussia’s largest oil producer Rosneft OJSC, accused it at a conference inMoscow last month of “actively dumping” crude in traditional Russian markets.The Bank of Russia in its economic overview published on Thursday said Saudicrude supplies to Europe may be the reason behind a widening Urals discount toBrent in northwest Europe, posing “additional risks for the Russian exports,payment balance, and above all — for the Russian budget.”

Yet while theMiddle East’s largest producer may be preparing for greater competitioninEurope, it shows few signs of planning a major expansion. Shipments of the kingdom’smedium, light and extra-light crude grades to Europe totaled 780,000 barrels aday in July, little changed from the second-quarter average, according to datafrom the International Energy Agency. Russia shipped more than twice as muchUrals to the region that month, the data show.

SaudiArabia’s interest in expanding in Europe will probably remainlimited because Asia still offers better prices and easier shipping, saidUl-Haq.

Iran’s planto increase production to the pre-sanctions levels means “it will have to seekadditional markets, including those traditionally supplied by Russia,” MehdiVarzi, a former Iranian diplomat and director of Varzi Energy Ltd. consultancy,said by e-mail.

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