如果您经常看到我们的信息，就考虑点击上面蓝字投资美国石油俱乐部直接关注呦！

Resourse: FuelFix

While OPEC’s fight to snatch market share from rival oil producersmight look like a costly failure as prices languish below $50 a barrel, anentirely different picture could emerge next year.

Supplies outside OPEC are expected to contract in 2016 for the firsttime since 2008, sliding by 200,000 barrels a day, according to theInternational Energy Agency. With consumption set to grow by 1.4 millionbarrels a day, OPEC and its de facto leader Saudi Arabia could seize the chanceto broaden their market as competitors damaged by the price slump fall off.

“To declare their policy a failure is a pretty bigleap,” said Greg Sharenow, who manages $15 billion as executive vice presidentof Pacific Investment Management Co. “I don’t think you could view Saudi andOPEC’s business plan and model as being a six- or 12-month view. In thelong-run, what you’re going to see is lower non-OPEC supply, higher demand andgreater market share for them.”

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in November 2014diverged from its traditional policy of adjusting supply to manage prices,announcing it would maintain output to defend its position in the market. Thatdecision has been tested by thecollapse in crude, which has since dropped morethan 40 percent amid a global supply glut.

Price Benefit

OPEC’s share of the world oil market dwindled to the lowest in a decadelast year as surging output from U.S. shale wells eclipsed gains in fueldemand. Yet the steep slide in Brent, which traded near $47 on Friday afterrecovering to more than $60 in May, could prove beneficial to the 12-membergroup as higher-cost competitors struggle.

“The worst thing for the Saudi strategy was whenprices rallied to $60 and looked like they’d stay there, because otherproducers can learn to live with it,” said Paul Horsnell, head of commoditiesresearch at Standard Chartered Plc. “For that strategy to work, it needed afurther severe downward correction in prices.”

Many U.S. shale companies are burdened by the borrowings that fueledthe industry’s boom. Interest payments on the $235 billion debt of drillers inthe Bloomberg Intelligence North America Independent Explorers & ProducersIndex may thin out some companies even after others found ways to cut costs andboost efficiency. The longer the crude price flags, the greater the pressure onshale producers to retrench.

FragileFive

Such cuts at competitors may be little consolation to OPEC’s mostvulnerable members. The weakest — the “Fragile Five” of Algeria, Iraq, Libya,Nigeria and Venezuela — have had to slash social spending following the drop inprices and face increasing risk of political unrest, according to RBC CapitalMarkets LLC. Ecuador, the member with the smallest crude reserves, is producingat aloss of about $9 a barrel, President Rafael Correa said on Aug. 25.

Algeria’s call for an emergency OPEC conference, backed by Libya andVenezuela, hasn’t received a public response from Saudi Arabia.

Even OPEC’s biggest member isn’t immune to the pain. The Saudigovernment is seeking to cut billions of dollars from next year’s budget afterrunning the biggest deficit since 1987 this year, according to two peoplefamiliar with the matter. Meanwhile Iran, once OPEC’s No. 2 producer, is set toswell global oil supply further by raising output once sanctions against thecountry are lifted.

“If Iran gets its opening right — which is a big If —then it has the capacity to really ramp up production just when the marketwould otherwise be tightening,” said Seth Kleinman, head of energy strategy atCitigroup Inc. in London.

Yet for all the flaws of OPEC’s plan, the alternative approach ofreducing production may have turned out worse. By cutting back, Saudi Arabiawould have ceded market share and lost revenue in the long-run while theresulting price support would have spurred U.S. shale output, inflating thesurplus, according to Societe Generale SA.

“This has always been a long game measured in years,not months,” Mike Wittner, head of oil-market research at Societe Generale inNew York, said by e-mail. “They just need to be patient.”

关于我们

投资美国石油俱乐部

全球第一个专注于美国石油天然气行业投资的华人微信公众平台。美国有超过400万平方公里的土地与矿产资源属于私人所有，是世界上最适合中小资本与个人参与原油开采投资的国家。自2006年美国爆发页岩气革命以来，美国的页岩油、致密油产量剧增，目前的原油日产量排名世界第三。预计2020年美国将成为世界上最大的石油出口国。美国原油生产成本大致在20~65美金/每桶之间，每口油井寿命达10年以上，通常直接销售原油带来的现金收入是初始打井投资额的3倍到10倍。本公众号介绍美国石油与天然气开采行业的资讯与动态、分享中国投资人参与投资的机会。如果想了解更多，可以加微信平台管理员的个人微信号teresa13264021820,为您解答更多问题哦。

免责声明：我们发布的转载资讯，对文中陈述、观点保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。如有版权问题，请联系我们，我们负责版权保护。