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Resourse: EIA

Gross inputs to U.S. refineries exceeded 17 million barrels per day(b/d) in each of the past four weeks, a level not previously reached since EIAbegan publishing weekly data in 1990. The rolling four-week average of U.S.gross refinery inputs has been above the previous five-year range (2010-14)every week so far this year. The record high gross inputs reflect both higherrefinery capacity and higher utilization rates.

Lower crude oil prices and strong demand for petroleum products,primarily gasoline, both in the United States and globally, have led tofavorable margins that encourage refinery investment and high refinery runs.Refinery margins are currently supported by high gasoline crack spreads thatreached a peak of 66 cents per gallon (gal) on July 8, a level not reachedsince September 2008.

For the past several years, distillate crack spreads have consistentlyexceeded those for gasoline, but since May, this trend has reversed. From 2011to 2014, distillate crack spreads (calculated using Gulf Coast spot prices forLight Louisiana Sweet crude oil, conventional gasoline, and ultra-low sulfurdistillate) averaged a 24 cents/gal premium over gasoline crack spreads. SinceMay 20, Gulf Coast gasoline crack spreads have averaged 17 cents/gal higherthan for distillate crack spreads.

Higher demand for gasoline is supporting these margins. Total U.S.motor gasoline product supplied is up 2.9% through the first five months of2015, and trade press reports indicate that demand is also higher in majorworld markets such as Europe and India so far this year compared with 2014.Total U.S. petroleum product supplied (a proxy for demand) is up 2.5% throughthe first five months of the year compared with 2014. Much of the refineryoutput is reaching global markets, as net exports are 19% higher this yearthrough May.

Favorable margins leading to high refinery runs are not limited to theGulf Coast region. Since early April, U.S. refinery utilization (gross inputsdivided by operable calendar day capacity) has consistently been above 90%,driven largely by elevated runs at Gulf Coast and Midwest refineries. Duringthat time, East Coast and Rocky Mountain utilization has also been high, onlydipping below 90% in five weeks and two weeks, respectivel

Despite the ongoing unplanned outage at ExxonMobil's refinery inTorrance, California, utilization on the West Coast exceeded 90% for the pastthree weeks, marking the second, third, and fourth times that all five regionshave recorded refinery utilization rates above 90% within the same week sinceEIA began publishing weekly utilization data in 2010. These high utilizationrates, combined with increased U.S. refinery capacity (18.0 million b/d as ofJanuary 1, 2015), have led to record high gross inputs. Monthly data onutilization rates go back further, and the last time all regions exceeded 90%in the same month was in September 2006.

U.S. refinery runs tend to peak in the second and third quarters of theyear when demand for gasoline is greater because of increased driving in thesummer. In its July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA estimates thatrefinery runs will average 16.7 million b/d from April through September andthen decline slightly in the fourth quarter to 16.2 million b/d before fallingfurther to 15.8 million b/d in the first quarter of 2016. Following the winterperiod of lower demand and refinery maintenance, EIA's STEO expects U.S.refinery runs will reach new highs next summer, averaging 16.9 million b/d inthird quarter of 2016.

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