First-time home buyers are expected to re-emerge in the new year after mostly staying out of the market in the aftermath of the housing crisis. That's one of realtor.com®'s five top housing predictions for 2015.
在经历过房地产市场的严冬后，那些跃跃欲试的初次购房者将在新的一年里为市场注入活力与生机。这是美国房产经纪网站realtor.com对于2015年美国房地产业做出的五大预测之一。
"The residual financial effects of recession-driven job losses and subsequent unemployment have impeded Millennials' entry into the home-owning market," says Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for realtor.com®. "In 2015, increases in employment opportunities will empower younger buyers to return to the market and fuel the continued housing recovery. If access to credit improves, we could see substantially larger numbers of young buyers in the market. However, given a high dependency on financial qualifications, this activity will be skewed to geographic areas with higher affordability, such as the Midwest and South."
“经济衰退带来的企业裁员和失业率上升阻碍了当代青年进入房产市场的步伐。”房产经纪网首席经济学家Jonathan Smoke分析指出，“但在2015年，就业机会的增加将会驱动这些年轻买家回到房产市场，推动美国房地产业的复苏。如果获得信贷的条件放宽，我们将会看到市场上年轻买家的数量越来越多。但同时基于对经济条件的高要求，这一政策将会更多倾向于中西部和南部一些富裕的地区。”
房产 | Realtor.com对2015年的预测 |
房价涨幅 | 增长4-5% |
按揭利率 | 年中增长，2015年底会达到5% |
现房销售量 | 增长8%，困厄资产水平达到最低 |
新屋开工率 | 总体增长16%；单户住宅增长21% |
新房销售量 | 增长25%，单户住宅建设量增加 |
住房拥有率 | 总体略有下降；35岁以下的房产拥有者将会增加 |
家庭负担能力 | 因房价上涨和利率上升，会下降5-10% |
房屋止赎 | 困厄资产的销售将会持续减少 |
经济 | Realtor.com对2015年的预测 |
国内生产总值 | 增长3%，自2005年来达到最高 |
家庭收入 | 增长3% |
家庭组建率 | 增长,千禧一代将会在未来5年内推动约2/3的家庭组建 |
失业率 | 略有下降，保持在6%以下 |
非农就业 | 有275万个就业机会，平均每月230,000个 |
Realtor.com®'s top five housing predictions for 2015 are:
Realtor.com网站对2015年房地产行业的五大预测：
1.Millennials to drive household formation. Households headed by Millennials are expected to see significant growth in 2015, particularly as the economy continues to make gains. Millennials are expected to drive two-thirds of household formations over the next five years, according to realtor.com®'s report. The forecasted addition of 2.5 million jobs next year, as well as an increase in household formation, are the two factors that realtor.com® points to in driving more first-time home buyers to the housing market.
1.“千禧一代”将会拉动社会家庭组建率上升。在经济状况好转的趋势下，2015年青年人组建家庭的数量将会显著增加，并在接下来的5年中构成新家庭数目的2/3。下一年新增的250万个就业机会和家庭组建率的上升，是房产经纪网预测初次购房者将大量涌入房产市场的两大关键因素。
2.Existing-home sales on the rise. Existing-home sales are projected to rise 8 percent year-over-year in 2015, as more buyers enter the market. Distressed properties will make up a smaller share of that growth, unlike in 2012, when a similar increase in existing-home sales was mostly driven by distressed properties.
2.现房销量将会上升。2015年，随着买家增多，现房销量预计会上升8%。困厄资产的销售所占份额将会缩小，不会像2012年那样占据现房销量的大部分。
3.Home prices will rise. Home prices are expected to continue to edge up in 2015, with realtor.com® forecasters predicting a 4.5 percent gain. "While first-time home buyers have many economic factors working in their favor, increasing home prices will make it more difficult to get into high-priced markets.
3.房价将会上涨。房产经纪网预测2015年房价将会上升4.5个百分点，报道还指出“不断上涨的房价会使得初次购房者进入高端市场变得困难.
4. Mortgage rates to inch up to 5 percent. In the middle of 2015, mortgage rates are expected to increase as the Federal Reserve increases its target rate by at least 50 basis points before the end of the year. That will likely bring the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to an average of 5 percent by the end of 2015. (It's currently averaging 3.89 percent, according to Freddie Mac.)
4.抵押贷款利率将会上升至5%。联邦储备系统设定其在2015年年底的目标利率增长至少50个基本点，抵押贷款利率也会在年中随之增长。这将会带动已近30年没有变化的抵押贷款利率在明年年底上升至平均5%（据美国金融机构Freddie Mac数据，当前平均利率为3.89%）
5.Housing affordability will decline. Affordability for homes, based on home-price appreciation and rising mortgage interest rates, will likely fall by 5 to 10 percent in 2015. However, the decline in affordability likely will be offset by an increase in salaries next year for many households. "When considering historical norms, housing affordability will continue to remain strong next year," realtor.com® notes.
5.住房负担能力将会下降。随着房价上涨和抵押贷款利率上升，人们对住房的负担能力将会在2015年下降5-10个百分点。但对于许多住户来说，工资上涨会缓解部分压力。房产经纪网写到，“鉴于历史常态，公众的住房负担能力仍会在一定程度上保持强劲。”
