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Resourse: IEA

HOUSTON — Healthier economies could burn through crude faster than theyhave in five years as they take advantage of cheap prices, but the oil glutwill likely persist, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday.

The IEA believes the world’s daily oil demand is set to grow by 1.6million barrels, an upward revision of 200,000 over its previous estimate.Crude supplies are expected to decline, but the global oil glut still won’t befixed right away.

“While a rebalancing has clearly begun, the process islikely to be prolonged as a supply overhand is expected to persist through 2016– suggesting global inventories will pile up further,” the IEA said in itsAugust oil market report on Wednesday. The Paris-based group advises 29oil-importing member nations.

The world’s supply of crude declined by about 600,000 barrels a daylast month as nations outside of OPEC put out less crude, the IEA said.

Global oil production totals almost 100 million barrels a day, and theagency predicted the growth in that production will decline from last year’s2.4 million barrels to 1.1 million barrels this year.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped more oil thanit has in the last three years, but its production actually dipped by 15,000barrels a day last month to 31.79 million barrels a day, the InternationalEnergy Agency estimated. Saudi Arabia put out slightly less crude, while Iraqand Iran bolstered production.

Iran added 50,000 barrels a day last month, an early increase followinga deal with Western powers that is expected to lift oil-export sanctionsagainst the Islamic Republic after it has passed international nuclearinspections toward the end of the year. That would allow it to put its crudeback into international markets next year.

Iraq’s output climbed by 30,000 barrels a day, as it continued to reachrecord production levels. Saudi Arabia’s oil fields cut their harvest by 80,000barrels a day.

OPEC has put 1.4 million additional barrels a day into the market sinceits November meeting last year, when it decided it would not lower productionto support crude prices. But that production only accounts for half of thegrowth in global supplies this year.

While non-OPEC production has shrunk, it still was 1.2 million barrelsa day higher last month than in July of 2014, because of previous investmentsby oil producers, the International Energy Agency said.

“Oil’s second lurch below $50/bbl has prompted majoroil companies and independents alike to revisit investment plans and take anaxe to them,” it said, and their production will probably start declining moresharply soon.

The oil-market crash that began last summer has “seen demand react moreswiftly than supply,” the group said, with daily oil demand growth more thandoubling from last year’s increase of 700,000 barrels a day.

The IEA’s report followed China’s second day of letting its currency,the yuan, decline in value before pumping it up against the dollar later in theday.

U.S. crude initially sank to as low as $42.80 a barrel early Wednesdaybut then rose to $43.78 a barrel after China’s currency turnaround and theIEA’s closely watched report. The benchmark had reached its lowest point in sixyears Tuesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

“I can’t see how the currency devaluation would loweroil prices — obviously their objective is to increase Chinese economic activityand make it more competitive,” with other emerging economies that have cheapergoods and lower labor costs, said Chris Ross, a finance professor at theUniversity of Houston. “The market does strange things.”

The yuan, he said, has been propped artificially high for some time. Anincrease in exports could begin relatively quickly, boosting economic activityand stimulating oil demand, Ross said. “China is in a better position,” interms of its place in the global market for exported goods, he said.

Praveen Kumar, another University of Houston finance professor, saidoil markets reacted to the yuan devaluation because it shows China’s economy isworse off than previously believed. China’s government has been reporting thenation’s 7-percent gross domestic product growth despite manufacturing readingsthat have come in weaker.

“China wouldn’t have taken this extreme step if theirinternal assumptions weren’t much more negative,” Kumar said. “In the shortrun, oil demand may be heading much lower.”

The IEA said the daily global oil supply in the second quarter was 3million barrels higher than daily demand, the biggest glut since 1998. It willprobably drain to 850,000 barrels a day next year, the IEA said. But the groupacknowledged that forecast doesn’t include potential supply increases fromIran.

“Against this backdrop, many participants in the oilindustry have adopted a new mantra – ‘lower for longer,’” the group said.

“While reduced capital spending will help rebalancethe market in the short term, it will no doubt also lead to lower future supplygrowth. This will become increasingly sensitive if demand continues above-trend,as it has so far in 2015,” it said.

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