Average diesel retail price below gasoline price again in U.S

2015年07月24日 投资美国石油俱乐部



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Source:EIA


On July 13, the U.S. averagediesel fuel retail price fell below the average regular gasoline retail pricefor the first time since the week of August 10, 2009. From August 2009 throughJune of this year, retail diesel fuel sold at an average premium of 34 centsper gallon (gal) over regular grade gasoline, with the difference reaching morethan 90 cents/gal in January.


The persistent price premiumfor diesel compared with gasoline from August 2009 until last week reflected acombination of factors including strong global demand for diesel, federal fueltaxes for diesel that are 6 cents/gal higher than those for gasoline, and thehigher production cost of ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) that was phased inbetween 2006 and 2010.


Gasoline and diesel haveopposite seasonal demand patterns: gasoline demand tends to peak in the summerdriving months, while diesel demand generally peaks in the winter heatingmonths. Since January, gasoline demand growth has been unusually strong both inthe United States and abroad. Furthermore, although retail gasoline prices inmost parts of the country have in recent weeks followed decreasing crude oilprices, elevated retail gasoline prices in California, as a result of ongoingsupply disruptions, have raised the U.S. weekly average gasoline retail price.


Tight diesel markets over thepast six years have reflected growing diesel demand from developing economiesand the switchover to ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) for home heating oil innortheastern states, where more than 80% of U.S. use of oil for space heatingoccurs. Over the same period, gasoline demand has generally been weak,reflecting increasing vehicle fuel economy and changing consumer drivingpatterns.


Gasoline demand in the UnitedStates began to rise considerably in the latter part of 2014 and through thefirst half of 2015 as U.S. retail gasoline prices reached some of their lowestlevels in years, reflecting the fall in North Sea Brent crude oil prices froman average of $112 per barrel (b) in June 2014 to $48/b in January 2015.Gasoline prices generally followed Brent crude oil prices, falling from$3.69/gal in June 2014 to $2.12/gal in January 2015. Based on the latest datafrom the Federal Highway Administration, Americans drove a record 987.8 billionmiles during the first four months of 2015, topping the previous record of 965.6billion miles set in the first four months of 2007. Global gasoline demand alsoincreased strongly in the first half of 2015.


Price parity between gasolineand diesel is likely to be a relatively short-term phenomenon, as gasolinedemand moderates with the end of the summer driving season and diesel demandbegins to grow in response to the fall agricultural harvest and the winterheating season. In the July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA projects thatthe diesel price premium will return and gradually widen later this year, withgasoline retail prices averaging $2.27/gal in December 2015 compared withdiesel fuel prices at $2.87/gal.


Principal contributor: SeanHill


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