如果您经常看到我们的信息，就考虑点击上面蓝字投资美国石油俱乐部直接关注呦！

Resourse: FuelFix

A new study by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on thepotential implications of allowing more crude oil exports finds that effects ondomestic crude oil production are key to determining the other effects of a policychange. Gasoline prices would be either unchanged or slightly reduced. Trade incrude oil and petroleum products would also be affected.

The recent rise in domestic crude oil production from 5.4 millionbarrels per day (b/d) in 2009 to 8.7 million b/d in 2014 and the prospect ofcontinued supply growth have sparked interest in the question of how therelaxation or removal of current policies, which restrict but do not banexports of crude oil produced in the United States, might affect markets forboth crude oil and petroleum products over the next decade. EIA's new report,Effects of Removing Restrictions on U.S. Crude Oil Exports, explores thisissue.

The analysis finds no difference between projections with and withoutcurrent export restrictions in two analysis cases in which projected productionwith current export restrictions remains below 10.6 million b/d over the nextdecade. However, in two other cases where domestic production in 2025 rangesbetween 11.7 million b/d and 13.6 million b/d, projections without exportrestrictions show increased domestic production, higher crude oil exports,reduced product exports, and slightly lower gasoline prices to U.S. consumerscompared to cases that maintain current crude oil export restrictions.

Domestic crude oil production: The variations in projected productionlevels across the four baseline cases used in the report reflect differences inthe characterization of oil resources and technology as well as future crudeoil prices. There is a considerable spread in projected domestic productionacross these cases, as shown in the above graph. The right-hand panel, whichuses a much finer scale (0.2 million b/d between labeled values on the verticalaxis, compared to 2.0 million b/d difference between labeled values on theleft-hand panel), shows that the removal of current crude oil exportrestrictions does not lead to additional production in the Reference and LowOil Price cases, where production remains at or below 10.6 million b/d through2025.

However, the removal of crude oil export restrictions leads toadditional production of between 0.4 million b/d and 0.5 million b/d by 2025 inthe High Oil and Gas Resource (HOGR) and the High Oil and Gas Resource/Low OilPrice (HOGR/LP) cases. These two cases have significantly higher baselineproduction based on more optimistic resource and technology assumptions.

U.S. gasoline prices: Petroleum product prices in the United States,including gasoline prices, would be either unchanged or slightly reduced by theremoval of current restrictions on crude oil exports. As shown in a previousEIA report, petroleum product prices throughout the United States have a muchstronger relationship to North Sea Brent, an international crude oil benchmarkprice, than to West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a domestic benchmark price.

In the high production cases considered in this study (HOGR andHOGR/LP), the elimination of current restrictions on crude oil exports narrowsthe Brent-WTI spread by raising the WTI price. As domestic producers respond tothe higher WTI price with higher production, the global supply/demand balancebecomes looser (more supply than demand) unless increased domestic productionis fully offset by production cuts elsewhere. The looser balance implies lowerBrent prices, which in turn results in lower petroleum product prices for U.S.consumers.

Trade in crude oil and petroleum products: Combined net exports ofcrude oil and petroleum products from the United States are generally higher incases with higher levels of U.S. crude oil production regardless of U.S. crudeoil export policies. However, crude oil export policies materially affect themix between crude oil and petroleum product exports, particularly in the HOGRand HOGR/LP cases, which have high levels of domestic production. Crude oilexports tend to represent a larger share of combined crude oil and petroleumproduct exports in cases in which crude oil exports are unrestricted, as shownin the figures below. Also, in cases where the level of domestic crude productionincreases with the removal of crude oil export restrictions, total combinedcrude and product exports are higher than in similar cases with current crudeoil export restrictions in place

Although unrestricted exports of U.S. crude oil would leave globalcrude prices either unchanged or falling slightly compared to parallel casesthat maintain current restrictions on crude oil exports, other factorsaffecting global supply and demand will largely determine whether global crudeprices remain close to their current level, as in EIA's Low Oil Price case, orrise along a path closer to the Reference case trajectory. Global pricedrivers, as well as resource and technology outcomes, will affect growth inU.S. crude oil production regardless of decisions about future U.S. crude oilexport policies.

EIA's full report provides additional insight into implications fordomestic refinery capacity and operations as well as for upstream producers. Italso identifies key factors and assumptions that affect the results of EIA'sstudy and other work on this topic, including:

The characterization of existing crude oil export policies

The extent of continued opportunities to substitute domesticallyproduced crude for imported crude used in U.S. refineries

The extent of the global production response, if any, to increaseddomestic production

The possibilities for expanding U.S. processing capacity if domesticproduction turns out to be high and current crude oil export restrictionsremain in place

Additional analysis is provided in the full report, Effects of RemovingRestrictions on U.S. Crude Oil Exports.

关于我们

投资美国石油俱乐部

全球第一个专注于美国石油天然气行业投资的华人微信公众平台。美国有超过400万平方公里的土地与矿产资源属于私人所有，是世界上最适合中小资本与个人参与原油开采投资的国家。自2006年美国爆发页岩气革命以来，美国的页岩油、致密油产量剧增，目前的原油日产量排名世界第三。预计2020年美国将成为世界上最大的石油出口国。美国原油生产成本大致在20~65美金/每桶之间，每口油井寿命达10年以上，通常直接销售原油带来的现金收入是初始打井投资额的3倍到10倍。本公众号介绍美国石油与天然气开采行业的资讯与动态、分享中国投资人参与投资的机会。如果想了解更多，可以加微信平台管理员的个人微信号teresa13264021820,为您解答更多问题哦。

免责声明：我们发布的转载资讯，对文中陈述、观点保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。如有版权问题，请联系我们，我们负责版权保护。