如果您经常看到我们的信息，就考虑点击上面蓝字投资美国石油俱乐部直接关注呦！

Resourse: FuelFix

The global oil market is healthier than it looks, signaling thatcrude’s plunge to six-year lows has probably gone too far.

While futures tumbled below $45 a barrel in London for the first timesince 2009, Morgan Stanley and Standard Chartered Plc say other measuressuggest physical markets for crude have stabilized or even strengthened inrecent weeks. China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer, will keep buyingextra barrels to fill its strategic reserve this year, according to GoldmanSachs Group Inc.

“While oil fundamentals aren’t strong, physicalmarkets do not corroborate the substantial weakness in flat price,” NewYork-based Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Longson said in a report Monday. The“latest oil pricing pressure appears more financial than physical.”

A measure of returns from commodities sank to its lowest since 1999Monday on concern that a slowing economy in China, the world’s largest consumerof energy and raw materials, will exacerbate supply gluts. Brent crude, theinternational benchmark, has dropped more than 30 percent since May on the ICEFutures Europe exchange in London. Prices rebounded 3.1 percent to $43.98 abarrel at 11:10 a.m. in London.

Financial Flows

The stabilization of the price gap between monthly crude contracts andchanges in the relationships between regional benchmarks suggests financialflows are behind the renewed slump, rather than a change in the physical oilmarket, Morgan Stanley said.

“This is very, very macro driven” with the focus onthe outlook for China’s economy, said Paul Horsnell, head of commoditiesresearch at Standard Chartered in London. “It’s not based on any kind of oilsupply-demand fundamentals.”

The gap between the price of the first-month Brent contract, October,and futures for settlement 12 months forward hasn’t widened enough over thepast few weeks to suggest the world is running out of space to store crude,according to Longson. The spread was more than $11 a barrel in January,compared with about $6 on Tuesday, ICE data show. This suggests the supplysurplus is smaller today than it was at the start of the year, said Horsnell.

The spread between Brent and Dubai, the grade used as Asia’s regionalcrude benchmark, is at its narrowest for this time of year in several years,according to Morgan Stanley. This signals continued strength in demand fromAsia for Middle Eastern crude, Longson said. Prices for West African crudegrades relative to Brent have strengthened in recent weeks, he said.

Chinese Demand

“Despite poor headline macro data, most China oildemand data points remain resilient,” Longson said. The nation’s apparentdemand for gasoline rose 17 percent last month, the highest growth rate allyear, he said.

The filling of emergency crude reserves in China “gives the market alifeline” that distinguishes the current situation from the Asian crash of1998, Jeff Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said in aninterview on Bloomberg Television Aug. 21. Brent crude dropped to as low as$9.55 a barrel in December 1998, according to ICE data.

China will add crude to two additional sites with a combined capacityof 50 million barrels in the second half, according to the International EnergyAgency. The nation bought more than500,000 barrels a day of oil that wassurplus to its daily requirements between January and July, according to datacompiled by Bloomberg. China National United Oil Co., the trading unit of thenation’s biggest energy company, is on course for its largest-ever haul ofMiddle Eastern crude purchases in Singapore.

“The irony is if you just take the oil market data onChina, it’s good — it’s really, really good,” said Horsnell. “If we wererunning it purely by the micro data, people would be saying: ‘Hey, this isn’ttoo bad’.”

Another weight lifted from the oil market is the conclusion of Mexico’sannual hedging program, Morgan Stanley’s Longson said. The Latin Americanproducer locked in 2016 prices for 212 million barrels, its Finance Ministrysaid on Aug. 20. The biggest hedge undertaken by any national government, theprogram was an “under-appreciated negative” for prices and its completion“removes a bearish overhang for oil,” he said.

关于我们

投资美国石油俱乐部

全球第一个专注于美国石油天然气行业投资的华人微信公众平台。美国有超过400万平方公里的土地与矿产资源属于私人所有，是世界上最适合中小资本与个人参与原油开采投资的国家。自2006年美国爆发页岩气革命以来，美国的页岩油、致密油产量剧增，目前的原油日产量排名世界第三。预计2020年美国将成为世界上最大的石油出口国。美国原油生产成本大致在20~65美金/每桶之间，每口油井寿命达10年以上，通常直接销售原油带来的现金收入是初始打井投资额的3倍到10倍。本公众号介绍美国石油与天然气开采行业的资讯与动态、分享中国投资人参与投资的机会。如果想了解更多，可以加微信平台管理员的个人微信号teresa13264021820,为您解答更多问题哦。

免责声明：我们发布的转载资讯，对文中陈述、观点保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。如有版权问题，请联系我们，我们负责版权保护。