昨日全球乳制品价格再次下滑7.9%，其均价跌至2345美元/吨，这是继10月20日与11月3日拍卖的第三次下滑。
其中，全脂奶粉价格跌幅最大达11.0%，其价格滑落至2148美元/吨；脱脂奶粉价格下滑8.1%至1851美元/吨。
据新西兰恒天然乳业的预期，全脂奶粉价格需要达3000美元/吨才能够符合其向奶农奶粉收购价格4.60纽币/千克的预期。
恒天然乳业下一次对于奶粉收购价格预测回顾将在12月份。乳品价格的持续下滑给新西兰奶农收入带来下行压力。
据恒天然乳业估计，本年度乳品价格会经历更多的波动直至2016年上半年才会有所改善。
全球乳制品拍卖情况
数据来源：Globaldariy trade
乳制品价格迟迟难以摆脱低迷主要受两方面原因影响：
一是受市场需求不足影响
据新西兰先驱报报道，本次拍卖中，全脂奶粉需求尤其薄弱，在第四轮竞标中便结束拍卖，而经常情况来讲竞标次数会达到8到10次；
二是受欧洲产奶量增长与压低成本价影响
8月份与9月份的价格大幅反弹是由于恒天然乳业减少其供给量，但由于欧洲地区并没有随之减产反而顺势增产以抢占市场，使得新西兰减产量被欧洲增产量所抵消而引发市场持续供过于求，价格难以复苏。
全球乳制品价格拍卖指数10年变化情况
数据来源：Globaldariy trade
据新西兰恒天然乳业预期，其奶粉收购价格为4.60纽币/千克，而大部分奶农能够达到收支平衡的理想价格是在5.30纽币/千克。
在新西兰商品交易所NZX的期货市场上，在2015年至2016年的时段乳制品商品价格显示几无增长。
AgriHQ分析师Susan Kilsby表示：“鉴于全脂奶粉价格在本次拍卖中下滑400美元/吨的情况，直至2016年7月份其价格预期将仅将达到2400美元/吨。
恒天然乳业本季的产量预期将下滑5%，有些分析师认为其减产量将会更大。
纽币/美元汇率昨日再度下跌30点，现行于0.6470附近。纽币可能会继续呈压下滑，有可能再次下探前低0.6240附近。
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