又是一夜非农业将临, 金融市场会怎样随其舞动是最为注目的焦点。实际上市场所关心并不是单纯的一个就业数据问题, 而是就业数据如何影响到美联储决议的问题, 各国央妈的动向问题才是真正撼动市场走势的根本. 本次非农看什么?
第一看美国就业数据与失业率, 第二看美国小时工资,第三看美国贸易平衡账.
看点一: 非农就业数据与失业率
美联储是否继续加息还是看老生常谈的两个方面: 劳动力市场与通货膨胀率. 在就业数据持续好转的情况下, 美国一直迟疑继续加息的仍然是持续低迷的国内通胀率. 美联储希望其能够如愿以偿的实现货币逐步正常化, 进行循序渐进的加息进程. 则本次非农美联储想看到的是就业人数好于预期, 失业率至少保持持平.
2月份非农就业数据预期情况
预期 | 前值 | |
非农就业人口变化 | 19.5万 | 15.1万 |
失业率 | 4.9% | 4.9% |
平均小时工资变化 | 0.2% | 0.5% |
贸易平衡账 | -438亿美元 | -434亿美元 |
从以上图表可以看到, 如果本次非农就业人口增长15.1万人以上则可以保持美国失业率
看点二:美国小时工资变化
美国平均小时工资变化情况
数据来源:Ycharts.com
数据来源: Forexfactory
从小时工资水平来看,自2012年-2016年以来,
工资水平的提高是消费力上涨的支撑,
看点三:美国贸易平衡账
对于美联储加息的另一个重要影响因素是贸易赤字扩大与国内低通胀
数据可能不会影响大环境
总体上看,本次非农可能不会对于市场大环境造成较大的改变,
如有更多问题,欢迎致电:
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