昨日澳洲数据报出黑马，澳大利亚第四季度GDP录得上涨0.6%，好于预期值0.5%。随后澳币如脱缰的野马一般迅速飚涨，截至北京凌晨时间8点51分澳币兑美元汇率自昨日开盘0.7174一路飞涨至0.7294，涨达120点。 澳币大涨并非仅依托于GDP利好因素，近期大宗商品价格回稳与国际货币环境是主要的大环境所在。
大宗商品与股市价格逐步回稳，风险资产再次受到青睐
大宗商品价格近日有所抬头，并有继续筑底上行的倾向。纽约商品交易所原油期货价格自2月份低位以来上涨20.8%；伦敦金属期货交易所铜价期货价格自1月份以来上涨9.2%；纽约商品交易所矿产铁矿石价格自12月份低点上涨43.9%。 同时，全球股指自2月份以来迅速反弹，新兴国家资产再度受到青睐。澳洲作为主要商品出口国家，本国货币随大宗商品价格回稳而上涨。
澳联储保持官方利息率不变，打破降息预期
本周二澳联储将官方利率保持在2%不变，是连续10个月将官方利率保持不变。在目前全球经济疲软的情况下，市场预期澳联储将在本年度再次降息。本次利息率保持不变显然给澳币再打入一剂强心剂。与其他欧美国家相比，澳洲官方利率依旧相对较高，欧洲央行与日本央行官方利率均接近于零。
澳币目前的币值已处于历史低位，对于价格与收益率的考虑来看，投资澳币是比较好的选择。同时，澳洲矿业股份近期也出现筑底迹象，澳大利亚最大矿产公司必和必拓股票自2月份以来上涨17.7%。投资澳币与澳洲矿业股份是抄底投机者与长线投资者均青睐的方向。
（数据来源：Forexfactory）
中国宽松或将扩大对澳洲出口需求
另一个推涨澳币的源头可能来自目前中国的货币宽松政策，主要是中国的宽松可能会带来对澳洲商品进口需求下行局势的缓解。中国央行再次实行降准使得企业融资成本降低，并且政府支持实体经济，将推涨中国对于能源与矿产业产品的需求预期。人民币贬值预期虽然仍在，但近期在政府行为下逐步回稳。这将给澳币的逐步升值提供支持。
谁在涨？谁在跌？
尽管各项经济数据与专家们的分析图表上仍然呈现着各种危机与下行风险，但基金经理与交易员们对于廉价风险资产的热衷却连连升温。
最近什么在涨？
大宗商品-原油、黄金、铜与风险性资产；澳币、纽币、加币、日元与全球股指。
最近什么在跌？
国债收益率、美元与欧元。唯一积极主张货币收紧的美联储对于加息愈加犹豫，这将使得风险性资产投资再掀起一浪风潮。
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