导师说| 解析特朗普的国际学生及移民政策,美国留学申请微信公众号文章

　　美国网红特朗普的当选成为今年最大的黑天鹅事件。美国国内，甚至全球，一半人欢欣鼓舞，一半人哀嚎一片。对于有意赴美读书和打算留美工作的中国学生来说，特朗普是天使还是恶魔？今后4年甚至8年对我们是新生还是噩梦？

导师介绍

Jordan Dotson

　　杜哲森，毕业于弗吉尼亚大学，获得英国文学与经济双学位。后到香港城市大学学习中文，获创作文学硕士学位。作为升学顾问，杜哲森辅导的学生全部被美国前50的大学录取。多次接受纽约时报，The Chronicle of Higher Education, 南方周末，新华社采访。除了工作，杜哲森喜欢摇滚（组过摇滚乐队，他的歌曲在 iTunes 可搜到）。自诩作家、诗人。曾被选为2005年全美英语文学荣誉协会指定的散文评论家和评审团成员，诗歌作品增在3种杂志出版。

1) 特朗普当选后会采取什么样的正对国际学生的政策？

　　Jordon Dotson：特朗普在2015年8月发表推特说“外国人来我们的顶尖大学读书，并且愿意留在美国的，我们不应该把他们扔出我们的国家。”特朗普的这个言论对留学生应该是一个利好信号。如果特朗普政府实践他的诺言，这其实是美国的国际学生和移民政策的进步。目前大部分留学生在美国工作都要不得不面对可笑荒诞的H1B系统。

　　我个人觉得美国政府对在竞争激烈的名校中勤奋学习的中国学生的政策将会维持原状。为什么不呢？这些学生给美国经济贡献了几十亿美金，同时不引起任何麻烦。这些学生是美国大地上最正能量的所在。我不认为美国政府有任何理由去改变目前的状况。中东的学生也许会面临更加严格的签证政策。

　　不要忘了移民和“中国威胁”是在大选期间非常抓人眼球的社交媒体话题。但是，落实到实际，这些争论对推动美国的经济发展没有什么好处。而发展经济是特朗普政府最为关注的议题。

　　对发展经济的重视也许会反映到对F－1签证和EB5绿卡申请的调整。目前H1B的申请非常难，而通过EB5的投资移民却简单得多。目前的移民系统并不打算长期保留国际学生，而是对来自中国的资金更感兴趣。这是短视的行为，对美国经济也没有任何好处。

　　但是，说到底，国际学生政策不是美国政府最关心的议题。国际学生议题在整个大的政治环境下，以及推动经济发展的大前提下，也只不过扮演一个小角色。在过去20年，美国接受了越来越多勤奋的、刻苦的国际学生，尤其是中国学生。我认为这个趋势将会一直进行下去。

2) 特朗普当选会成为中国学生的噩梦吗？

　　Jordan Dotson：不可能的。这次大选只是国际学生第一次如此热烈地参与到讨论之中（感谢社交媒体）。过一段时间你就会发现人们是如此健忘。再过一段时间，超级碗、奥斯卡会代替特朗普登上报纸头条。美国人会迅速回到原有的生活中去。

　　人们容易忘记的是美国是一个非常复杂的系统。美国的政治体系的属性导致事情很少快速发生和发展。这样的设计是专门为了防止民粹以及大众非理性地回应。总统不是国王，他很难想做什么就做什么。另外，特朗普在竞选期间树立了很多敌人，他的总统任期将会如履薄冰。8年前奥巴马当选时许诺进行改变，但是最后其实更多是维持现状。原因之一是我们的政治体系远远比人们想象的复杂的多。

　　最后，与其担心特朗普会成为国际学生的噩梦，还不如担心马上将要到来的，让人很头疼很头疼的期末考试！

原文

1） What policies on international students that Trump possibly will adapt? Will the policies on international students keep stable, or change dramatically?

　　Jordon Dotson：Trump stated in social media in August 2015 that "When foreigners attend our great colleges and want to stay in the U.S., they should not be thrown out of our country." That should be heartening for the large portion of Chinese students who come to the US to work diligently in rigorous academic programs. If the Trump administration follows up on that notion, then it would actually be an improvement for students in America now, who face ridiculously slim work and career opportunities through the H-1B visa program.

　　Personally I feel that government policy toward hard-working Chinese students, in rigorous academic programs, will stay stable. How can it not? Chinese students contribute billions of dollars to the US economy. They cause almost no trouble. Overall they're a giant positive factor in the landscape of America, and I can't foresee any situation in which America will turn them away. Middle Eastern students very well may face a bit of jingoism in visa policy. Programs like the J-1 exchange visa and DACA for illegal immigrants very well may change, but these aren't really a major concern for Chinese students (I think, at least - I don't know much about these).

　　Remember that immigration and "rise of China" economic issues make for good social media arguments that draw a lot of attention and advertising dollars, but they won't do much to help the economy, and that's the one thing that Donald Trump and his administration are likely to care about most.

　　This may be reflected in tweaks to the F-1 visa and EB-5 immigration programs. Right now, it's hard for international students to obtain an H-1B work visa after college. But it's remarkably easy for them to obtain permanent residence if they contribute $500,000 through the EB-5 program. It seems to me that the current system exists not to retain students long-term, but to promote the influx of wealth from China. It's short-sighted, a bandage approach to fixing America's one great, huge, monstrous, disastrous looming problem - our broken government budget and national debt.

　　People forget that America is very complex system, with a very bloated bureaucracy, in which things rarely happen quickly or easily. It's designed to NOT quickly respond to the emotional whims of the nation. The president is not a king who can act according to his own will, and our new president is one who has made a lot of enemies along the way, which won't make change come any easier. Eight years ago, Obama promised great changes, and all we got was more of the status quo - more bloated bureaucracy, more national debt, more war overseas. (That's why Americans voted the way they did.) Complex systems have a way of asserting themselves and only growing more stale and complex.

　　At the end of the day, international student issues just aren't of major concern for anyone. These policies are more likely to be small bargaining chips in the wheeling and dealing over larger international economic policies, if anything at all. In the last two decades, America has become more and more welcome for serious overseas students, particularly those from China. I would expect that trend to continue.

2） Will Trump presidency be the nightmare of international students?

　　Jordon Dotson：No way. This has just been the first election (thanks to social media) in which international students have gotten to see how crazy and ridiculous American get during the election cycle. Pay attention and see how quickly everyone forgets. The Super Bowl, after all, is coming up in a few months, and by then we'll likely see a quick return to the status quo as American get their rabid entertainment elsewhere.

　　In the end, I think the only nightmare international students will face is the same nightmare they've always faced...really difficult final exams!