The world is watching a new constellation being formed among the nations of the 21st Century. A fresh superstar in the form of a Chinese nova is dominating the world stage and is challenging the older stars in every conceivable realm of power. Globalization has increased the intensity of interest and has reached across geography to create an era of possibilities not imaginable before the age of internet and multinational corporate capitalism—or even, multinational corporate socialism. Global governance and increasing nationalism are prospering at the same time. The world will be forever changed because of the events of our times and of the immediate future.
世界正在关注一颗新星在二十一世纪的国家中冉冉升起，中国像一个崭新的超级明星那样在引领国际舞台，在各个领域挑战着昔日的明星。全球化加剧了对利益的兴趣，并且超越了地域，形成了一个皆有可能的时代，这在互联网和跨国公司资本主义或者说跨国公司社会主义诞生前是无法想象的。全球治理①和愈来愈高涨的爱国心并驾齐驱，世界因为我们这个时代的所为以及不远的将来而面临前所未有的巨变。

While international relations and Great Power politics have long existed, nothing like the global order relationship now being negotiated between China and the United States has ever before been seen. Historians, political scientists, internet bloggers and media partisans struggle to define what is going on. The old superstar and the new superstar are compared and contrasted daily across private dinner tables and in public arenas.
虽然国际关系和大国理论早已有之，但中美之间对国际格局关系的探讨乃史无前例。历史学家、政治家、各路媒体以及互联网上的博客都试图阐述眼下所发生的一切。每天，在公共场所和私人餐桌上，人们都在比较和对比今天和昔日的新旧超级明星。

The world’s most advanced superpower, the United States of America, reached hyperpower status when the U.S.S.R. crumbled and split apart in the last decade of the Twentieth Century. While great empires had existed before, no nation-state had been able to reach such towering heights at the top of the global hierarchy in terms of all forms of power reaching into every continent at push-button speed. Some analysts predicted an “end of history” and a consensus in favor of US interests. America’s military prowess and its willingness to use its armed forces gave it a hard power few would deny. The fact that the US was the world’s top financial and economic state made its sticky power resonate throughout the World Trade Organization, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, reserve currency (the US Dollar), and stock markets everywhere. Most importantly, American global hegemony came from the enormity of its soft power—or sweet power—to use its culture, university system, Hollywood dominance, and the English language to create an American dream narrative that was, and still is, highly persuasive. These three very real forms of power—hard, sticky, and soft gave the American Eagle a global hegemonic status that Barack Obama has called smart power.
美国，这个全球最发达的超级大国，在二十世纪末前苏联解体后，成了超级强国②。以前也确实诞生过庞大的帝国，但没有那个民族国家在全球的地位达到如此之高，只要一按电钮，其各种实力便会触及所有大陆。有分析家预言“历史会被终结”，一切都会以美国利益为主。美国的军事力量以及动用这些力量的意愿让其成为不可否认的强国。事实上，美国在全球的头号金融和经济地位使其“粘实力” 的影响在“世贸组织”、“国际货币组织”、“世界银行”、货币储蓄（美元）和股票市场无处不在。更为重要的是，美国的全球霸权地位来自于其强大的软实力——美国文化、大学体系、“好莱坞”大片和英语语言创造的“美国梦”，从过去到现在依旧颇有说服力。硬实力、软实力和粘实力这三种真正的实力让美国鹰拥有了一种全球霸权地位，奥巴马将这称之为是“巧实力”。

At the same time, the world has seen the rise of a global competitor to American uni-polar dominance. The Chinese Dragon has an equal share of the world’s attention. Never before has such a nation-state existed—one with such large geography, enormous population on earth, and a record-setting economy that has equaled the US gross domestic product (GDP) and will surpass it in the next few years. In terms of power definitions, Hu Jintao often spoke of the need for comprehensive power. China’s military enlargement and capabilities program, including a spectacular Space exploration agenda brings a hard power reality that is undeniable. At the same time, the Chinese model for economic growth has proven a worthy challenger to the Eagle’s sticky power. In both hard and sticky power realms, the Dragon has gained great power status—and this has been done in a brief 35-year period since Deng Xiaoping initiated reforms in 1979.Now, Xi Jinping speaks of the Chinese Dream for China as a state and for its people as a nation with both public and private aspirations. For this to be expressed on a world stage, soft sweet power is needed. Almost every analyst acknowledges that while China’s soft power is growing, it remains the weakest part of the comprehensive power equation and will take the most time to grow. But grow it will. Mr. Xi and the era of possibilities—the Man and the Moment—have met in the reforms that will help raise the soft power of Chinese culture to greater acceptance by audiences worldwide.
同时，全球也看到美国霸权的一个世界竞争者在崛起，中国龙引来的全球关注与美国平分秋色。以前从没有这样一个民族国家出现过，其地域广阔、人口众多，经济发展创纪录，GDP赶上了美国，并将在未来的几年超越美国。从实力上讲，胡锦涛常说需要综合实力。中国的军事发展计划，包括壮观的空间探索计划使其硬实力不容否定；同时中国的经济发展模式也已经证明足以挑战鹰的粘实力。在硬实力和粘实力领域，龙的地位长足很大——这仅仅是邓小平在1979年发起改革开放后的35年间就做到了。习近平从国家和个人的角度在讲中国梦。在国际舞台上，几乎所有的分析家都承认虽然中国的软实力在增长，但就综合实力来讲，依旧是最弱的一部分，软实力的发展最费时间。不论如何，中国的软实力会增长的，习近平先生和皆有可能的时代——天时与人和在改革年代的对接，这将会帮助中国提升文化软实力，让全球更多的人接受中国。

The Dragon and the Eagle: Xi Jinping, Barack Obama, and an Era of Possibilities engages the discussion over the changes now occurring in the global order. The so-called Westphalian Project that began in 1648 with the building of national state sovereignty is being challenged by the changing dynamics wrought by complex global interdependencies and movements toward cooperation, regime formation, and cosmopolitan norms. No two nations are more involved in this process than the Dragon and the Eagle. Whether or not a new type of Great Power relationship can be formed, is at the core of this discussion. The actions of Mr. Xi and Mr. Obama will have an enormous influence on what is now an era of possibilities, the crucible of a new world order based both on respect and power.
《龙与鹰：习近平与奥巴马，皆有可能的时代》探讨的是当下的全球格局变化。所谓的“威斯特伐利亚格局” 在1648年就开始创建的民族国家主权正在受到挑战，复杂的全球相互依赖、互相合作、政权的形成和全球概念等动因交织在一起，其中牵扯最多的是龙和鹰。大国之间是否会形成一种全新的关系是人们探讨的核心。习近平先生和奥巴马先生的举动在这个皆有可能的时代影响巨大，建立一个基于尊敬和实力的世界新格局面临严酷的考验。

This book collects the articles published in the literary/historical journal Mei Wen美文from April 2012 to October 2013 in a series of essays by the author, as translated into Mandarin byProfessor Hu Zong-feng of Northwest University, Xi’an. This was the first-ever series of academic articles written by aforeigner and invited by editors Jia Pingwa and Mu Tao to have an open hand in selecting themes. The close collaboration by the author and the translator make the book valuable in expressing a cross-cultural understanding of our times. In fact, an international seminar held at Northwest University in July 2013 brought together twelve Chinese experts from the fields of political science, Chinese cultural studies, Chinese literature, American literature, and history in a one-day seminar focused on the ideas expressed in these essays.
本书收集的文章是作者2012年4月至2013年10月在《美文》发表的系列专栏文章，译者是西北大学的胡宗锋教授。本专栏的文章是《美文》主编贾平凹和穆涛先生首次邀请外国人开系列学术专栏，并放手让作者挑选专题。作者和译者的密切合作为本书添彩，让人们从跨文化的角度来理解我们这个时代。实际上，2013年7月，在西北大学举行了一次国际研讨会，来自政治、文化、历史、中国文学、美国文学等领域的十二位专家和学者针对本专栏系列文章中的观点进行了探讨。

The essays compare the Dragon and the Eagle in many ways: political, cultural, historical, global. Every essay was based on extensive research in recent books, articles and newspaper stories. One of the essays, “Old Man West and the Young Chinese Cinderella” was republished in the journal Translator’s Digest(2012/3 and 2012/4), in the newspaper Guangming Daily (2012-7-6), and in the CCCP journal (just after an article by Hu Jintao), before being selected by the Chinese Literary Association for inclusion in the anthology Best Essays of China in 2012 (2013).Another article, “A Life Story, Baijiu, and the L. A. Lakers: Xi Jinping Conquers America,” was also published in Translator’s Digest (2012/2).
本专栏的系列文章从政治、文化、历史以及全球观念等方面对龙与鹰进行了比较。每篇文章都基于对最新资料的广泛研究。“西方老人与年轻的中国灰姑娘”一文于2012年7月6 日被《光明日报》转载，《译苑》2012年第三期刊发英汉对照版，2012年8月中央党校的《党政干部参考》转载，与胡锦涛主席的文章发表在同期，并被收录在中国文联出版的《2012年最佳散文》中。“饮白酒，观‘湖人’——习近平征服美国”一文也曾在《译苑》2012年第二期刊发。
罗素·邓肯
2014年4月于丹麦哥本哈根大学

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