作者：英国驻广州总领事卢墨雪(Matthew Rous) 翻译：何为之
作为英国驻穗总领事，我所涉及的工作领域相当宽泛；然而，要说到哪个领域会对我们的生活方式和持续繁荣产生潜在影响，最重要的无疑是气候变化。毫无疑问，气候变化是英国和华南正迫切面临的最大现实挑战。
尤其对于珠三角而言，这些影响看似遥远，但我们需要现在就拿出实在的针对性行动。
本周，世界多国领导人将齐聚巴黎，出席六年来最大规模的应对气候变化论坛。中国已经制定了宏伟的减排计划，目标是使温室气体排放量不晚于2030年达到峰值。华南各省区（粤、桂、湘、赣、闽、琼）政府也在为中国实现“十三五”期间的低碳转型作出各自的贡献。
为实现“2度情景”——即，控制全球平均气温比历史长期平均值升高不超过2摄氏度），我们必须形成合力，达成共识。
同时，我们必须看到，气候变化所带来的风险还没有得到充分的认识。举例来说，即便在“2度情景”下，到2100年，珠三角的大片地区仍有可能被完全淹没。
关于全球平均气温每上升1摄氏度时所造成的海平面上升高度，目前的共识是2.3米。这就意味着即便我们能保证“2度情景”珠三角仍将面临4.6米的海平 面上升威胁（而如果我们不加强应对措施，估计连“2度情景”都很难实现）。就广州周边地区而言，下图深蓝色区域将在海平面上升5米时被海洋吞没。
图片来源：http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/
海平面上升所带来的威胁远不止洪水那么简单，还包括海岸侵蚀、咸潮等风险。尤其是咸潮，对于依赖全球6%的淡水资源来养活全球逾两成人口的中国而言，一旦咸水渗入淡水储水层，早已饱受工农业生产、建筑和生活废水污染等影响的地表淡水资源将面临更严重的威胁。
华南同样将面对愈发频繁的极端天气，如热浪、台风，以及由此引发的洪涝等等。
除了这些直接的影响之外，气候变化对人类健康的影响也不容忽视。今年早些时候，中国气象局局长郑国光就曾提出警告，由于近年来中国平均气温的升高速度比全球平均快了整整一倍，使得温暖地区（如珠三角）的蚊媒疾病（由蚊虫叮咬导致）——如登革热——成为常态。2014年，世界卫生组织也就此提出过警告，当 年也是二十年来中国登革热疫情最严重的年份。
中国也逐渐意识到，单靠工程上的“治标”来应对气候变化风险，将比从现在就开始“治本”（减缓气候变化的脚步）花费更大。自2000年以来，气象灾害给中 国造成的经济损失占到了同期国内生产总值1%，这一比例是世界平均的9倍之多。广东省民政厅的统计数据显示，2013年全省在应对极端天气气候时间上的花费高达490亿人民币。如果我们不采取行动，珠三角的工商业将面临巨大的经济风险；即便我们保证“2度情景”，适应气候变化的过程仍将带来数十亿元的花费。
当然，说这么多，绝不是为了引起不必要的恐惧、绝望乃至宿命论。我们能行动！能通过我们的行动减少温室气体的排放，减缓气候变化的影响。
英国驻广州总领事馆多年来一直致力于与华南各省（区）政府、商界和民间展开合作，共同应对气候变化等挑战。2013年，英中两国联合建立了中英（广东）二氧化碳捕集、封存与利用 (CCUS) 研究中心， CCUS技术将对中国减排二氧化碳、应对气候变化发挥关键作用；一旦在海丰县的燃煤电厂CCUS试验取得成功，全国范围内CCUS技术的推广将取得重大进展。同时，我们也在诸如支持广东省和深圳的碳排放权交易建设、南海海上风电资源开发、广州市低碳城镇化等诸多领域，与各界紧密合作。
这些政府间层面的合作固然重要，但我们每个人也能为应对气候变化尽到自己的力量。
我们可以改变我们的用车习惯，回归公共交通，例如自行车。
我们可以节约用水——或许，我们不需要每天早上都向花城广场的人行道上洒水？
我们可以减少垃圾的产生。要知道，废物分解所产生的甲烷，比二氧化碳的温室效应潜力大得多——或许，我们可以点少些菜？或许，我们可以养成打包的习惯？——又或许，我们能更好地做到废物回收再利用？
我们可以减少能源的使用，提高能源效率——或许，我们应该随时提醒自己：随手关灯、关电视？
气候变化是一项全球挑战，没人能独善其身。人人努力，积小成大，我们都能为中国社会的绿色革命尽一分力。政府角色当然重要，但广大公民和消费者的力量同样不可忽视。改变我们的行为，我们完全能够应对气候风险，化解这一全球挑战。
英文原文:
In my work as Consul-General I get involved with a broad range of issues. But none is more important, in terms of the potential impacton our way of life and prosperity, than climate change. This is certainly the most existential challenge that the UK shares with South China.
The impacts can seem distant. But the need to act is real,urgent and relevant – particularly for us in the Pearl River Delta.
This week, heads of governments from across the globe aregathering in Paris for the biggest Climate Change conference in six years.China has set itself an ambitious target to tackle greenhouse gas emissions,with a peak date of 2030. The governments of Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangxi,Hunan, Fujian, and Hainan are all working on their plans for the 13th Five-Year Plan to accelerate China’s low carbon development.
A deal must be reached if we are to achieve our target of limiting global warming to an increase of no more than 2°C target on historic levels.
At the same time the risks of climate change are not always well articulated. But they are stark: even under a 2°C scenario, whole swathes of the PRD could be underwater by 2100.
The generally accepted measure of sea level rise is 2.3 metres per 1°C. This means a rise of 4.6m in the Pearl River Delta even if we hit the international target of 2°C – something which is looking unlikely on current plans. The image below shows what a 5 metre rise will look like for Guangzhou –the dark blue shows areas that will be submerged by sea water.
Rising sea levels not only bring flooding, but increased coastal erosion, and salt water intrusion. The latter could be catastrophic for China, a country which has 21% of the world’s population but only 6% of its fresh water supplies. Salt water from rising sea levels will move intofreshwater aquifers and contaminate drinking water sources. This will compound the existing problem of groundwater pollution from manufacturing, agricultural and industrial processes, and poorly treated sewage.
The frequency of extreme weather events is also expected to increase – including heat waves, and flooding from the increased number ofstorms and typhoons over South China.
Aside from the obvious impacts of rising seas and extreme weather, climate change will bring about real risk to health. Zheng Guoguang,Head of the China Meteorological Administration, warned earlier this year that temperature rises in China were already twice as fast as global averages. And,as temperatures rise further, the incidence of mosquito-borne tropical diseases such as dengue fever and malaria will become commonplace in Guangzhou and the broader PRD. The World Health Organisation warned about this very risk last year – the same year as China saw its worst outbreak of dengue fever in two decades.
And, while China may find engineering solutions to much ofthese risks, it will be costly – more costly than acting now to slow the pace of climate change. Losses due to weather disasters in China since 2000 have amounted to 1% of GDP (eight times higher than global average). The Guangdong Civil Affairs Bureau announced in 2013 that the economic cost of dealing with the consequences of climate change was 49 billion RMB. Businesses in the PRD face huge financial risks if climate change goes unchecked. Even in a 2°Cscenario, adaptation efforts will cost billions.
The last thing I want to do is to encourage unnecessary fear, despair, or fatalism. We can act,we can contribute to cutting emissions, and we can slow the impacts of our changing climate.
The British Consulate-General is working with provincial governments, businesses, and civil society groups across the South China region to step up our joint efforts. The UK jointly set-up a centre in Guangdong in 2013 to accelerate the development of offshore carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) – technology that will be vital in China’s battle against climate change. We’re nearing the first phase of the demonstration project at acoal-fired power plant in Haifeng, which we hope will eventually help with the rollout of CCUS nationwide. We’re also working on a number of other projects,for example to support the development of the Guangzhou and Shenzhen emissions trading pilots, develop a roadmap for offshore wind development in the South,and support Guangzhou’s efforts for a more sustainable low carbon urbanisation pathway.
These are all things we are doing at a government-to-government level. But we can all make changes at the individual level now help tackle climate change.
We can change our behaviour on the use of cars and revertback to public transport or our bicycles .
We can use and waste less water – why can’t we stop watering the pavements every morning in Huacheng Square in Zhujiang New Town?
We can produce less waste (methane from landfill is more potent greenhouse gas than CO2) – why can’t we order less food so the restaurant has to throw away less – or take it home with us? And why not recycle more?
We can use less energy and be more efficient when we’reusing it – why not turn off the lights at home if you aren’t in the room? Or the TV if you aren’t watching it?
Climate change is global problem that will affect us all.With each of us making small changes, we can kick start a green revolution in Chinese society where everyone plays their part. Government of course has a role to play. But as citizens and as consumers too we can make an important contribution. We can change our behaviour now to help tackle this problem head on.
