昨日全球乳制品拍卖价格再度下滑，打压纽币再次下行。 经过一个多月的积极反弹后，纽币终不能敌新西兰国内经济低迷与全球金融市场风险而再度跳水。
昨日纽币对美元再跌近百点，最低跌至0.6587。上周，新西兰恒天然乳业将其原奶收购价格预期由4.15纽币/千克下调至3.90纽币/千克。新西兰央行随即将官方利率再次调低至2.25%, 以降低债务成本支持乳品产业。新西兰经济到底怎么了?
乳品价格一跌再跌，新西兰支柱产业面临资不抵债
根据全球乳制品交易中心（GDT）数据， 自2014年2月份至今乳制品价格指数下滑幅度达57.6%。今日凌晨的拍卖结果再次出乎意料下跌2.9%，主要产品全脂奶粉价格下滑0.8%至1971美元/公吨；脱脂奶粉价格下跌2.5%至1731美元/公吨；凝乳酶干酪素(Rnnet Casein)的下滑幅度最大，跌幅达7.0%至4083美元/公吨。本次价格的再度滑落时出乎市场预期的， 由于此前根据新西兰商品（NZX）交易所乳制品期货价格显示本次拍卖价格预期将有所上涨。
新西兰第一大乳制品公司恒天然乳业（Fonterra）连续下调对奶农支付价格，目前其对于2015-2016年的价格预期为3.90纽币/千克，与奶农收支平衡的价位5.30纽币愈行愈远。奶农生活难过，债务缠身。
据统计，在新西兰银行债务构成中，农产业债务比重大概为10-15%，而其中绝大部分为乳业贷款，就目前的状况来看部分债务会成为坏账，银行为维持奶农正常生活被迫将利率一降再降。新西兰央行行长表示，如果乳制品价格在三年以内乃以恢复，最坏情况将有15%的银行债务约达400亿纽币将成为坏账，新西兰农场价格将下跌40%。
数据来源：GDT
数据来源：GDT
欧洲奶产量增加抢占市场，导致全球乳制品供给过剩
由于新西兰是依赖商品出口，尤其是乳制品出口为经济依托的出口国，在抵御国际金融风险的方面较为脆弱。为何目前乳品出口如此之艰难？一是由于欧元区长期陷入债务泥潭后，在欧洲央行大手笔实行货币宽松的刺激下其乳产量增加，抢占了新西兰的主要出口市场。二是由于中国消费需求减弱。作为新西兰的最大进口国中国目前经济减速，消费不足使得供给过剩更为严重。
根NZ herald 消息，欧盟目前为救势将其脱脂奶粉与黄油价格提高一倍，但长期来看，这可能会给欧洲地区奶民错误的信号，使其继续扩大生产而导致价格的进一步下滑。
纽币随央行降息决议于乳制品价格下跌而一路下行，昨日纽币对美元再跌70点，最低下滑逾百点，目前运行于支持位置0.6600附近。对于目前经济形势与投资情绪来看，纽币有可能再次打开下行空间。
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