2017年美元对人民币的影响
Implications of US Dollar to RMB in 2017
随着美国大选的结束以及整个市场准备进入节假日状态，我想借此机会跟大家讨论一下美国新政府以及美联储对美元走向的潜在影响，特别是对人民币的影响。
With the US election over and markets preparing for the holidays, I wanted to take some time to discuss the potential implications of the new US administration and US Federal Reserve on the Dollar – with specific attention to the Chinese Yuan.
首先，然我们看看这两种货币最近的历史。
First, we can look at the recent history of both currencies.
我们从图中可以看到，人民币走强的趋势是负面的。外国投资银行家和货币交易商指出这样的走向将会一直持续到2018年。
We can see the strong movement of the RMB that is trending negative. Expectations from foreign investment bankers and currency traders show this trend continuing into 2018.
下面这个图表显示，到2018年11月，1美金可能能兑换7.28到7.58人民币，这可能是货币兑换史上短时间内汇率变化最大现象了。
One chart (see below) shows a possible rate difference of 1.00 USD to 7.28 to 7.58 RMB by November 2018. In the world of currency exchange – these are very large changes in short periods of time.
但是，两国政府也许能人为的改变这一现象。
While both governments can do some things to alter this path – let’s quickly look at the incentives.
美国经济继续强大带来很多就业机会，这将刺激出口以及外来投资。为了保持通货膨胀，美联储将在12月底前提高利率。我估计会有0.25个基点，甚至0.50个基点的跳动。这将增加贷款利率以及美元的价值。
The US economy continues to add jobs, increase exports and increase foreign direct investment. To keep inflation steady, the US Federal Reserve will look to increase its rate by the end of December. I estimate 0.25 basis points; however, it could be as much as 0.50 points. This will increase loan rates and the value of the US dollar.
在中国，对二三线城市的过度建设已成为一个很高的关注点。很多私营的房地产公司已经开始在海外投资，已满足他们的投资多元化。再加上其他日常品销量问题，这给北京施加了很多压力，因为制造业毕竟是目前中国就业率的主臂。如果人民币贬值，那么才能降低生产成本，从而刺激出口，提高就业率。
In China, there are strong concerns about over-building in second and third tier cities. Many of the privately owned real estate firms are looking overseas for investments to diversify. This along with other concerns in commodities, will put pressure on Beijing to shore up jobs in manufacturing – another arm of Chinese employment strength. By keeping the RMB low compared to the Dollar, it makes buying Chinese exports cheaper and thus helps keep people employed.
川普上台后的影响：
The impact of a Donald Trump administration:
其实川普怎样领导这个政府还是个未知数。但是，作为商人，他最关心的就是“交易”如何。当然在竞选过程中，川普不会试图威胁与中国的关系，但并不代表上台后不会讨论类似的问题。总之，我认为中美的强大业务网会说服川普采取其他方式来改变美国制造业的现状 － 也许他会利用信用或税收的渠道。
Much is not known about how Donald Trump will lead his administration. However, as a business man, he is concerned about the deal. It is unlikely Trump will try to act on his campaign threat of a tariff on Chinese imports; but one should expect a lot of talking and debating about it. In the end, I expect the strong business connections between America and China to persuade the future President to look for alternative ways to impact manufacturing in America – most likely in credits and tax incentives.
我希望我的中国友人考虑尽快储存美金。如果你能把资金转移到美国再兑换更好。另外，购买房产，出租物业，或者投资房地产也是很好的渠道，既能保证你的美元储备，同时又能安全的拥有不动产。
My recommendation is to hold a significant amount of your cash reserves in US dollar. If you can transfer funds to the US for exchange, I’d highly suggest starting that process as soon as possible. Additionally, purchasing homes, rental properties or investing in real estate can be a way to grow your dollar reserves while safely holding hard assets overseas.
如果你有什么问题或想1对1地资讯，请随时联系我。
If you have any questions or would like a 1:1 consultation, feel free to reach out to me anytime.
美国直拨：+1 310 428 0010
中文协助：+86 185 3822 7111
安美国际官方网址：www.usa-anmei.com
安美国际官方邮箱：[email protected]
ANMEI美国房产为您提供：
最优质的美国房产投资项目；
最贴心的美国房产买卖服务；
最专业的美国房产交易指南，
最全面的美国房产文化资讯。
关注ANMEI美国房产，实现您的美国梦。
安美国际值得您的信赖，期待您的垂询。
↑↑↑长按图片识别二维码关注↑↑↑
