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Resourse: FuelFix

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Across a Mideast fueled by oilproduction, low global prices have some countries running on empty andscrambling to cover shortfalls, even as more regional crude is on tap to enterthe market.

While some Gulf nations rest on ample reserve funds, embattled Iraq isdesperate to scrounge up more money for its fight against the extremist IslamicState group as protesters demand repairs to its failing power grid. Contrastthat to neighboring Iran, whose nuclear deal with world powers positions it tore-enter the global oil market and make long-needed repairs to its fields toincrease its daily production.

The possibility of more supply entering the market has analysts alreadylowering their forecast price for oil into the next year. And even if the pricerises, industry experts say U.S. production quickly could ramp up and keepprices low for years to come, challenging the power of OPEC.

“There’s almost no way that OPEC can get the band backtogether,” said Greg Priddy, the director for global energy and naturalresources at the Eurasia Group. “You can’t get prices rapidly back up … becauseyou’d get runaway growth in the U.S.”

Fluctuating oil prices are nothing new to the Mideast, such as the dropin prices in the 1980s following the 1970s oil crisis in the U.S. This timearound, as global prices have fallen by more than 50 percent since the middleof last year, countries like the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait havelarge cash reserves to cushion the blow. Many in the Gulf also have diversifiedtheir economies.

But even those with significant reserves could see new explorationprojects and drilling halted in their countries. In January, Royal Dutch ShellPLC announced it would halt its planned Al Karaana petrochemicals project inQatar, which would have been owned 80 percent by state-run Qatar Petroleum and20 percent by Shell. It blamed falling energy prices.

Despite the price downturn, oil-powerhouse Saudi Arabia declined tolower its oil production and continues to spend government money on itsextensive subsidy programs. But while the International Monetary Fund in Junewarned the kingdom faced a deficit of around 20 percent of the country’s grossdomestic product, it still has billions of dollars in reserves it can burnthrough, even as it conducts a costly war in neighboring Yemen.

For Iraq, which lost about a third of its territory to the IslamicState group last year, things are much more serious as oil revenue accounts fornearly 95 percent of all government spending. The country’s $102.5 billionbudget ran a deficit of about $21.4 billion in August. Meanwhile, Iraq’sautonomous Kurdish region now sells oil independently from the centralgovernment.

“Iraq is facing a double shock arising from the ISISinsurgency and the plunge in global oil prices,” the IMF wrote in August, usingan alternate acronym for the Islamic State group. “The risks remain very high,emanating from an extension of the conflict, political tensions, weak policyimplementation and further shocks from oil markets.”

In neighboring Iran, the Islamic Republic is preparing for economicsanctions to be lifted as part of a deal with world powers in exchange forlimiting its nuclear program. Analysts estimate Iran has as much as 30 millionbarrels of oil ready to enter the market in floating storage. After taking careof needed repairs to its oil fields halted by the sanctions, experts say itcould add upward of 4 million barrels of oil a day to global production.

“Absent a rise in global demand, an increase in supplyof this magnitude would inevitably depress prices,” ratings agency Moody’sInvestors Service said in July.

Another supply wild card is Libya. Oil production fell dramatically inthe 2011 civil war that saw longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi killed. In thetime since, the country has been split between warring militias and rivalgovernments, but a possible peace deal could see production ramp back up to asmuch as 1 million barrels of crude oil a day, Citi Investment Research saidTuesday.

And even if prices drop, Moody’s warns that Iraq and Saudi Arabialikely would increase their production to try to make up for the lost cash — furtheradding to global supply and likely keeping prices low. That puts additionalpressure on the 12 members of OPEC ahead of the cartel’s next meeting.

“The world is still going to be oversupplied through2016 and it’s not going to be until 2017 that you actually have the bloatedinventories come down,” said Priddy of the Eurasia Group.

Associated Press writerJonathan Fahey in New York contributed to this report.

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