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Source:FuelFix

HOUSTON — Oilstrategists from a handful of countries are gathering in Vienna this week todecide whether or not to create an artificial scarcity of crude to boost oilprices.

Outsidersdon’t expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to make bigchanges to its current strategy, but any hints that it is laying groundwork fornew plans could move energy markets – dramatically. After an OPEC meeting thistime last year, U.S. crude fell more than $7 a barrel when the cartel decidedagainst squeezing supplies despite of a global oil glut, choosing to defend itscorner of ever-evolving markets in East Asia and North America.

OPEC’smeeting officially begins on Friday. Here’s what has changed about the groupand the world around it lately.

Market Influence

The 12 OPECnations put out just 4.4 percent of the world’s gross domestic product lastyear and together make up a quarter of the planet’s land mass. But they control73 percent of the world’s oil reserves and for years have worked together tosway oil markets by tweaking output levels, a strategy that gives themout-sized influence in a global economy that runs mostly on oil.

But the oilexporters chose not to tap into their market power last year, and if they dothe same this year by keeping their oil flowing at the same rate, some believeit would just be confirmation the international cartel has become less relevanton the global energy stage. “It’s more and more looking like an organizationthat is very moot at this point,” said Jamie Webster, a senior director at IHSEnergy.

Barclaysanalysts wrote Thursday there are too many bearish market forces at play forOPEC to be able to prop up prices with bullish intonations alone. The market,Barclays said, is still expecting Chinese economic growth to lag next year;Iranian production to increase; a drop in winter demand and, if the FederalReserve starts hiking interest rates, the effect on the dollar could make itmore expensive for international buyers to buy dollar-denominated crude,sending demand and prices down.

Shale

Theimplication is OPEC has ceded market-pricing influence toother market players including the financiers who back U.S. shale production, aflexible source of crude supplies that can shift output up and down relativelyquickly depending on prices.

Because shalewells have rapid depletion rates, oil producers have to keep drilling at highrates to keep output growing. But it’s an expensive venture, so equity and debtcapital markets are key to shale drilling and have become a more central playerin determining oil supplies. Shale production kept increasing earlier in theyear when capital markets were pouring cash into distressed oil companies, butthe output has fallen as investors have reined in cash, realizingoil prices aren’t making a quick recovery.

Indonesia and Iran

Indonesia,which joined OPEC in 1962 and left the group in 2009, is returning into thefold at this year’s meeting, meaning the cartel could announce an increase inits overall crude production target of roughly 1 million barrels a day toaccommodate the oil importer. But the change won’t actually affect behaviour atOPEC; that is, it likely won’t cause the group to pump more oil. The group’sproduction target has historically been a faint guideline, surpassed easily andoften. The cartel is currently pumping around 2 million barrels over its targetcurrently.

One nationOPEC isn’t likely to make accommodations for is Iran. Iranian officials havecalled for its fellow exporters to curb production in order to make room forthe Islamic Republic’s return to the oil market next year, but Saudi Arabia andother key Gulf states are expected to ignore pleas for production cuts. TheUnited States and other western powers are expected to lift oil sanctionsagainst Iran in exchange for constraints on Iran’s nuclear program. Iranexpects to boost its production by at least 500,000 barrels a day next year.

Proven Strategy, So Far

Crudeproduction outside the organization is slated to fall in the current quarterfor the first time in four years, with declines reaching 520,000 barrels a dayearly next year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.OPEC’s top oil exporter Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude producer, hassaid it will not cut its production alone to buoy the market.

Saudi Arabiahas the financial resources to ride out the oil slump for at least half adecade, according to the International Monetary Fund, and can afford to wait awhile longer for the downturn to fix the market oversupply. But oil productionaround the world will have to fall a lot further before supply and demand arerebalanced..

“Thestrategic reasons of why (OPEC) made the policy stance they did last year arestill there and still in place this year, even though the pain has been greaterthan any OPEC member expected over the course of the past year,” Webster said.

Outside Cooperation

Some tradersare hoping Saudi Arabia has found another oil exporter willing to help curb production: Russia. Theworld’s two biggest oil producers have been building closer ties in the energysector, with Saudi Arabia investing $10 billion in Russian infrastructure andenergy projects. The two recently formed a working group to start talks oncooperation in oil and gas, and market observers are watching for any signalsfrom the OPEC meeting that the two geopolitical rivals may pair up.

But there areplenty of reasons such an alliance is doubtful. Saudi Arabia and Russia aresupporting different sides in the Syrian civil war. Russia backs the regime ofSyrian President Bashar al-Assad, while Saudi Arabia supports the rebels tryingto overthrow him. Also, Saudi Arabia and Russia have become fiercer rivals inthe past year, with Russia sending more exports to China through a well-placedpipeline and Saudi Arabia encroaching on Russia’s turf in Poland and otherEuropean markets.

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