澳洲房价的历史、现状和未来

《The history of Australian property prices》

今日悉尼讯澳洲东部时间2013年2月13日

英文作者：by Philip Soos

对于那些对澳大利亚房产市场感兴趣的人来讲，研究澳洲房产市场的历史数据是件非常有意思的事情。澳洲人是非常幸运的，因为房产市场和金融市场很多数据是公开的，而且是深入的；仔细研读澳洲的房产数据，我们可以对当前形势和未来走向做出判断。

For those interested in the Australian residential property market, a long history makes for fascinating reading.   Australians are fortunate because much data on real estate and financial   markets is publicly available, going into depth not seen in other countries.   Careful scrutiny can yield useful ratios that go back over a century and   offer context for where the market is now.

房产价格和通货膨胀的对比是房产市场分析的重要指标，如果两者相对均衡，那就意味着与其他货物和服务相比，房产市场对消费者并没有额外的吸引力。

Comparing housing prices to inflation is one of the more   common indicators in property market analysis. If the trend is fairly even   over time, then there is no indication that people are favoring housing   relative to other goods and services.

另一方面来看，如果两者之间存在较大的差距，那就说明消费者认为房产市场相对更有吸引力；很有意思的是，除1961年到1964年以外，每一次房价的上涨都会导致衰退。

On the other hand, if there is a wide divergence between   housing prices and inflation, this tells us that people are considering   housing to be relatively more important. Interestingly, every rise in real   prices has led to a downturn, with the one exception of 1961-1964.

另一个房产市场分析较为常用的方法是将房价数据和租金数据作对比，尽管考虑到租金、风险和利率等因素，两者不大可能相等；但如果房产市场完全有效的话，租房和买房的的成本应该是相一致的。自第二次世界大战后的繁荣以来，这一比率有所下降，比率的上升意味着比房产泡沫的出现，70年代中期、80年代初、80年代末和今天都是如此。

Another popular method of determining   property valuation is comparing housing prices to rents. In a fairly   efficient market, the costs of buying and renting should closely match each   other, though due to factors such as taxes, risks and interest rates, it is   unlikely that costs will equal. Since the post-World War II boom, the ratio   has unevenly decreased. Upswings in the ratio suggest the presence of a   bubble: the mid-'70s, early '80s, late '80s and today.

由于通货膨胀和租金的不断上涨，住房价格增长也超过了收入增长速度；不幸的是，统计局不公布长期的家庭可支配收入（HDI）中位数，所以分母是用家庭总收入除以家庭数量得出的，这样得出的HDI就高于真实值，因为平均值通常要比中位数值高许多，灵位由于养老金会被计入，但不能将贷款还款扣除，所以HDI还会更大；因此如果用真实的HDI值来计算，比率会更高。

As with inflation and rents, housing   prices have also outstripped incomes. Unfortunately, the ABS does not provide   a long-term median household disposable income (HDI) series, so the   denominator is derived by dividing aggregate real gross household income by   the number of occupied households on an annual basis. This results in an   unusually high HDI as averages are typically greater than medians, and is   further amplified as the HDI is stacked with artifacts like superannuation   which cannot be drawn upon to finance debt repayments. While the outcome is a   rather low ratio, it keeps in line with that developed in Stapleton’s 2012   housing paper and shows a substantial increase from 1996 onwards. A more   realistic median measure would result in a higher ratio.

导致大萧条的主要原因很明确，就是以商业性房产市场为核心的土地泡沫的发生。每一次比率的上升都会导致衰退，相应的会导致经济下滑；70年代中期、80年代初、90年代初的经济衰退就是这个缘故。与1996年该比率相比，2010年的峰值几乎翻番；20世纪70年代该比率的持续增长很可能是因为土地价格的上涨。

It is easy to see the major cause of the Great Depression:   a deflating land bubble, centered in the commercial property market. Every   major rise in the ratio has resulted in a downturn, correlating with, and   arguably causing, the economic recessions of the mid-'70s, early '80s and   early '90s. The ratio has doubled from the trough in 1996 through to the peak   in 2010. The substantial rise in the ratio during the late 1970s was likely due   to an anomaly in splicing multiple land value series together, though part of   the rise is justifiable because of a residential bubble.

很多学者都会用资金债务比率来预测房产价格的上涨和土地市场的繁荣与萧条，澳洲的私人债务数据可以追溯至1861年，但土地总价值是在1910年之后才开始公布的。1893年债务为最高值，导致商业地产泡沫破裂，带来澳洲历史上最严重的萧条。同样的事情也发生在20世纪20年代；随后2008年，债务记录再创新高，随后的衰退也让我们记忆深刻。

The primary determinant of the boom and bust cycle in the   land market is availability of credit/debt used to speculate on rising   capital values of real estate. While data on private debt goes back to 1861,   aggregate land values only begin in 1910. Debt peaked in 1893, driving a   colossal commercial land bubble that burst, causing the worst depression in   Australia's recorded history. This also occurred in the 1920s, with the same   result. It took until the 1970s for the debt cycle to assert itself once   again, with one boom and bust after another. Debt reached the highest peak on   record in 2008, driving the largest land boom on record.

不出所料,房价和地价大幅增加,加上净租金收入的巨大损失的原因,是家庭债务的增加,这主要指是来自抵押贷款债务。从1988年以来，它上涨了四倍,在90年代和2000年代快速加剧。这个比例在2010年达到顶峰,正如房价,这显然不是偶然的。

Unsurprisingly,   the cause for the massive rise in housing prices and land values, along with   net rental income losses, is the colossal increase in household debt,   primarily composed of mortgage debt. It has more than quadrupled since 1988,   rapidly accelerating during the '90s and 2000s. The ratio peaked in 2010, as   did housing prices, which is clearly no coincidence.

而土地繁荣一直持续不断的成为澳大利亚经济特征,区分这个周期的是看它在土地价值和私人债务之间相对大小的繁荣比较。

While   land booms have been a continual feature of the Australian economy, what   separates this cycle is the relative size of the boom in both land values and   private debt.

大家常说“这一次是不同的”。这当然是可以这么说,但原因却不是通常给出的:澳大利亚还没有经历一个其历史上这种数量级的土地繁荣,或泡沫。

It   is often claimed that “this time is different”. It certainly is, but not for   the reasons usually given: Australia has not experienced a land boom, or   bubble, of this magnitude in its history.

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