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孔子曰： 温故而知新，可以为师矣。

让我们回顾一下在2013年12月17号（近半年前），地产评论家曾经对2014年澳洲楼市展望的预言。

以下是详细内容：

【2014年澳洲楼市展望：火爆依旧？开始降温？还是温和持续？】

地产评论家、地产网站hotspotting 创立者特里·莱德认为，2014年房市将展现出更多的“理性”。

他表示，悉尼及墨尔本每三到四年会出现一股房产拍卖狂热，但随后会稍微冷却。

预计明年两市房价涨幅在5-10%，且上涨势头会较为均衡地扩散到近郊和远郊区。

布里斯班房市刚开始升温，明年房价涨幅可能扩大，超过10%。2013年房价涨幅一度领先的珀斯房市会保持强劲势头，该市房价较低可负担性强的地区会出现复苏。

莱德认为其它四个首府楼市表现将相对平淡。今年初，西澳价值340亿澳元Ichthys液化天然气项目启动，长达820公里过境管道工程不但给达尔文市带来诸多工作岗位，也带来了住宅购买及投资需求。然而年初突然爆发活力后，达尔文楼市已经“安静下来”，这意味着2014年房价涨势会较为温和。

阿德莱德明年房价涨势一般，可能在5%左右。霍巴特楼市已出现“技术性衰退”，需要政府采取刺激措施进行扶助。首领地地区则会因联邦政府1-1.5万人裁员计划及公寓供应过剩，陷入困境当中。

经济不景气房价将受累？

专注于伦敦及悉尼楼市的Allen Wargent公司联合创始人彼得·沃锦德表示，从基本面看，影响楼市的几项关键指标正发生变化，2014年澳洲楼市会吹起几股逆风。

他称澳大利亚失业率温和上升，矿业投资继续下滑，明年（2014）经济增速可能仍低于趋势，预计房地产市场会受到打压和拖累。事实上，住宅建筑业表现仍没有出现澳储行期待的实质性改善，明年利率将仍维持在历史最低水平，并有继续下调可能。

Wargent给出房价预测如下：

堪培拉-1 ％至-4％

霍巴特-1 ％至2 ％

珀斯0 ％至3 ％

阿德莱德0 ％至3 ％

布里斯班2 ％至5 ％

墨尔本2 ％至5 ％

悉尼6％至9 ％

起点低的房价涨势可持续

RP Data维州住房专家罗伯特·拉罗卡认为当前楼市火热局面主要由央行低息政策驱动，而非真实消费信心与需求。今年房产清拍率上涨了10个百分点，但与2007或2010年的快速上行期相比，房价走势更为温和、可持续。交易水平仍不算过高，房价还有上涨空间，预计明年2014楼市将保持这种“可持续”的势头。

英文原版：

Property market forecasts for 2014: Boom,bubble or trouble?

Tuesday, 17 December 2013 22:54

STEPHENTAYLOR

There’s a lot at stake as our property experts gaze intotheir crystal balls and make some predictions for the coming year.

Terry Ryder, property commentator and founder ofhotspotting.com.au, believes the 2014 housing market will show "a littlebit more sanity" than this year.

"Sydney and Melbourne are experiencing an auctionfrenzy, which occurs every three or four years, but things will settle down abit," he said. "Next year there will be 5%-10% growth in those citiesbut it will be more evenly spread across the middle and outer-ringsuburbs."

Ryder predicts the big improver will be Brisbane "whichis only just starting to gather momentum". Improvements will be sharedacross the board. "Brisbane is behind Sydney and Melbourne after beingadversely affected by the devastating floods of 2011 and the job lossesexperienced by 1,500 public servants after the election of the Newmangovernment in March 2012.

"Brisbane is only just now starting to take off and Isee much stronger growth there – perhaps over 10%."

Ryder predicts Perth’s "solid year" – it wasgrowth leader early in 2013 before being overtaken by Sydney – would ensure itcarried momentum, especially into the more affordable areas, in 2014.

He said Darwin had "quietened down" after a flyingstart fuelled by the $34 billion Ichthys liquefied natural gas project offWestern Australia. The 820 kilometres pipeline through Darwin has generatedjobs and, consequently, the interest of investors and home buyers. The factthat this growth has already happened will mean a more moderate 2014 for thecity.

Adelaide, he said, would show moderate growth next year ofaround 5%, while Hobart – "technically in recession" – will needgovernment input to maximise its opportunities.

Ryder predicts savage job cuts of 10,000 to 15,000 by theAbbott government and an apartment oversupply will have Canberra"struggling" into the New Year.

He believes the next interest rate move will be up – but notpossibly before at least the middle of next year – and that a heated Sydney propertymarket is not reason enough to put the brakes on the economy as a whole.

He described a 7% increase in property values overall –after two years of zero growth - as "moderate" and not justifying any dampening tactic by the RBA. "Affordability is the best it’s been in 10 years so there’s no need to put on the brakes in 2014 – even though a lot can happen in six months."

Regions should do well in 2014, he predicts, especiallythose with input from resources, such as Narrabrai and Dubbo in NSW, Myles and Rockhampton in Queensland, and Port Lincoln in South Australia. A regional growth leader will be Cairns in Far North Queensland which is making a come back. Ballarat and Bendigo in Victoria will show growth, boosted by high infrastructure spending and regional rail links.

No-go areas, Ryder warns, are Melbourne’s Docklands,Southbank and CBD, where oversupply has stymied the apartment market. Likewise,oversupply will affect the Queensland coal port of Gladstone, he says. Ryder isnot enamoured with regional city Mackay nor tourism hotspot, the Gold Coast."Stay away from the speculative market," he warns, "and buy in‘real’ suburbs with real housing where people have jobs and buy houses to livein. Sales momentum in south-east Queensland is inland – not on the coast."

Peter Wargent, co-founder of Allen Wargent property buyersin London and Sydney, is a best-selling author and blogger. He said:

"Our base case sees a number of key variables whichwill represent headwinds for the property markets in 2014.

"With the unemployment rate still in a moderate uptrendand mining capital investment set to fall, it is likely to be a year of sub-trend economic growth for Australia, and, consequently, we are tendingtowards a more subdued overall view than you will see elsewhere.

"The RBA has yet to see the material uplift in dwellingconstruction it had hoped for, so we are expecting to see interest ratesremaining historically low, and the next adjustment may yet still bedown."

Sydney is the clear standout, he said. There are likelychallenges ahead for Canberra, but Brisbane could be the star.

Wargent’s property price predictions:

Canberra -1% to -4%

Hobart -1% to 2%

Perth 0% to 3%

Adelaide 0% to 3%

Brisbane 2% to 5%

Melbourne 2% to 5%

Sydney 6% to 9%

The Melbourne property market in 2014 is likely to maintain- and even build - on the momentum of 2013, according to Monique Sasson,founder of Wakelin Property Advisory.

“2013 was a year of recovery with the values of manyproperties recouping their losses since the last peak in 2010," she said.

"We anticipate this trend to continue, and feel themomentum of the past 12 months should carry the Melbourne market upwards in thefirst half of 2014.

“There will be many Super Saturdays – weekends with a thousand-plusauctions – throughout the autumn of 2014. Nevertheless, robust demand shouldsoak up this supply and see auction clearance rates remain at around 70%.

“In a typical year, the first serious auction weekends don’toccur until mid-or-late February. But the auction season may well open a little earlier than usual in 2014 and we may see a lot of deals in the private treaty market as early as January.

“The greater unknown is what will happen in the second halfof 2014. In large part, the trajectory of the property market will be determined by the Reserve Bank’s attitude to setting monetary policy.

“It may well be the case that the RBA decides to leave interest rates steady throughout most of 2014. If that scenario eventuates,then expect to see Melbourne price growth in 2014 to be strong, and potentially reaching double-digits.

“I doubt the Reserve Bank will be entirely comfortable with this potential outcome – especially if there is a similar result in Sydney.

“Consequently, there is a reasonable likelihood of a modest tightening in monetary policy – perhaps 25 or 50 basis points – from around the middle 2014, or even earlier. This would dampen capital growth in the second half of the year and possibly see a retracting back of some of the earlier 2014 growth.

“Should the Reserve Bank cut rates again, then I expect this will accelerate capital growth in 2014. However, in our view, another rate cutseems unlikely and unwise. As well as fuelling price inflation, cutting rates to 2.25% or lower leaves the Reserve Bank with little in the way of monetary ammunition to respond to any unexpected shocks: such as the banking crisis of 2008.”

This article first appeared on Property Observer.

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