【房价放缓?】悉尼公寓市场继续上涨!,澳洲悉尼地产投资微信公众号文章

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随着较低的空置率，低利率和相对比较有吸引力的汇报继续吸引投资者和年轻的自住购房者，悉尼公寓价格在未来2年预计会再涨15%。

“是X和Y世代一直在支撑着自住需求的上涨，他们越来越多的把公寓视做一个更加永久性的居住选项。”BIS Shrapnel 这份报告的作者 Angie ZIgomanis说。

他在《2014到2019悉尼公寓报告》中说最近出现的对悉尼房产价格可能要下跌的担忧可能是不成熟的。

BIS Shrapnel 预计悉尼的高密度公寓市场在2014/15和2015/16年会继续保持强势。

报告说悉尼房市不太可能出现供应过剩的问题，尽管创记录的新房正在兴建，市场仍然在试图填补几乎10年新房开工不足所带来的缺口。

他说住在公寓房里的自住比例已经开始上升，从39%增加到42%。

预计未来5年每年批准的高密度公寓数量会达到平均17,900套的水准。

这个数字远高于前5年平均每年13,250套的水准。

预计将兴建最多公寓的地区是市中心(每年3700套），Parramatta 大区(1600套），Ryde大区(1200套），Auburn大区(1100套）和Ku-ring-Gai（900套）。

他说如果从明年中期起利率开始上调并在2016年继续上升，这将会抑制未来几年对公寓房的需求，并导致营建许可的减少和房价的疲软。

英文原版：

Gen X and Y to fuel apartment boom

Carolyn Boyd 2014年6月5日在Sydney Morning Herald 报道：

Prices to rise 15 per cent over the next two years, say analysts.

Sydney apartment prices are expected to soar by a further 15 per cent over the next two years as low vacancy rates, low interest rates and relatively attractive yields continue to attract investors and younger owner-occupiers.

“It is Generation X and Y – who are increasingly seeing apartments as a more permanent living option – that have been supporting this rise in owner-occupier demand,” said the author of a new report, Angie Zigomanis, of researcher analysts BIS Shrapnel.

Mr Zigomanis says in the report, Apartments in Sydney Suburbs 2014 to 2019, which was released on Thursday, that recent concerns over a potential downturn in Sydney property prices may be premature.

BIS Shrapnel predicts Sydney’s high-density apartment market will remain strong over 2014/15 and 2015/16.

The report says it is unlikely an oversupply of apartments will emerge in the Sydney market as – despite record numbers of new apartments being built – the marketis still playing catch-up from almost 10 years of subdued building activity.

“This level of activity [would] need to be sustained fora number of years to counter the underlying undersupply that has emerged after the best part of a decade of underbuilding,” says Mr Zigomanis.

He adds the proportion of owner-occupiers living in apartments has begun to creep up, jumping from 39 per cent to 42 per cent inthe five years to 2011.

The number of new high-density apartments approved in Sydney is forecast to average 17,900 dwellings per annum over the next five years. That is well above the estimated 13,250 dwellings approved annually inthe five years prior to 2013/14.

The areas forecast to have the highest numbers of new apartments are the City of Sydney (3700 apartments per annum), Parramatta LGA(1600), Ryde LGA (1200), Auburn LGA (1100) and Ku-ring-Gai Shire (900).

Mr Zigomanis says if interest rates begin to rise during the middle of next year – as BIS Shrapnel expects they will – and continue to climb into 2016 that would weigh on demand for apartments over subsequent years, and lead to fewer building approvals and weaker prices.

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