low oil prices reduced exploration and production investment

2015年09月28日 投资美国石油俱乐部



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寻:北美地区在产油田收购。要求收购规模五亿美金以上,常规非常规皆可。有一定的在产产量,并有较大的后续开发潜力。项目方的报价需符合行业定价惯例。

Sourse: EIA

Low oil prices, if sustained, could mark the beginning of along-term drop in upstream oil and natural gas investment. Oil prices reflectsupply and demand balances, with increasing prices often suggesting a need forgreater supply. Greater supply, in turn, typically requires increasedinvestment in exploration and production (E&P) activities. Lower pricesreduce investment activity.

Overlaying annual averages of the domestic first purchase price(adjusted for inflation) on oil and natural gas investment reveals thatupstream investment is highly sensitive to changes in oil prices. Given thefall in oil prices that began in mid-2014 and the relationship between oilprices and upstream investment, it is possible that investment levels over thenext several years will be significantly lower than the previous 10-year annualaverage.

Oil production is a capital-intensive industry that requiresmanagement of existing production assets and evaluation of prospective projectsoften requiring years of upfront investment spending on exploration, appraisal,and development before reserves are developed and produced.

Previous investment cycles provide insights into how investmentresponds to crude oil price changes. In 1981 and 1982, after crude oil pricessignificantly increased, investment topped out at more than $100 billion (in2014 dollars) and then averaged $30 billion to $40 billion per year into theearly 2000s as crude oil prices fell and remained in the $20-$30 per barrel (b)range. From 2003 to 2014, investment spending increased from $56 billion to ahigh of $158 billion as crude oil prices increased from $34.53/b to $87.39/b,including several months of prices reaching more than $100/b. EIA's 2015 AnnualEnergy Outlook Reference case projects real domestic first purchase prices toaverage about $70/b in 2020. This price level could result in substantiallylower annual oil and natural gas investment over the 2015-20 period than theannual average of $122 billion spent during the 2005-14 investment cycle crestperiod.


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投资美国石油俱乐部

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