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Sourse: Petro Global News

Despite industry wide cost cuts, Wood Mackenzie warned on Mondaythat more supply chain savings are needed as low oil prices push $1.5 trillionof new upstream spend out of the money.

The analysis concluded that upstreams must focus on project optimization andclose collaboration with service firms to reach a target average cost reductionof 20 to 30 percent on pre-sanctioned and U.S. tight oil projects.

Wood Mackenzie estimates that $1.5 trillion of uncommitted spend onnew conventional projects and North American unconventional oil is uneconomicat $50 a barrel.

West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at about $45.97 per barrelnear midday on Monday while Brent crude prices ticked up to $48.41 per barrel.

“Squeezing” the service sectorwill only generate about 10 to 15 percent in supply chain savings, the reportadded.

Last year’s oil price rout isexpected to drag upstream investment down by $220 billion in 2015 and 2016 fromWood Mackenzie’s pre-crash projections.

Onshore activity in NorthAmerica has already taken a big hit, with the number of U.S. land rigs fallingto 806 last week from 1,856 rigs a year ago.

Low oil prices have alsoprompted energy companies to defer 46 projects to date, Wood Mackenzie noted.

“We estimate that as much as$1.5 trillion of investment spend destined for new (pre-sanctioned) and UStight oil projects is now out of the money, or in starker terms, uneconomic ata $50 oil price. This spend is very much at risk,” upstream research managerfor Wood Mackenzie James Webb said.

Lower upstream spends have rocked the service sector, with severalwaves of layoffs hitting the industry across the globe.

While the service sector can “comfortably accommodate” an average of 40to 50 new projects globally every year, principal upstream research analyst OboIdornigie said Wood Mackenzie expects just six new projects to move forward in2015 and about ten the following year.

“The weak pipeline of new projects is resulting invery competitive bidding from the service sector as E&P companies negotiatehard on pre-sanction projects… However,the industry needs to strike a balance between near and long term drivers.Pushing the service sector too hard now is only likely to shore up problemsonce more attractive fundamentals return: Increasingly severe job cuts meansthat the industry is losing skilled resources that will take time to attractback when prices recover,” Idornigie explained.

While several years of low oil prices could bring about “profound,structural changes” to industry costs Webb said that, with oil prices expectedto recover in 2017, those changes are unlikely.

However, Webb added that re-working field development plans andoptimizing project design could help upstreams realize supply chain savings of20 to 30 percent.

“Stronger collaboration between operators and servicecompanies will be key in driving efficient practices. The winners therefore arelikely to be operators with a strong pipeline of near-term projects close tosanction which are able to take advantage of the trough in costs through2015/16,” Webb said.

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