A truely informed diner would choose a restaurant based on the quality of the menu and the chef's experience. The discerning investor would decide which company to back after studying the business plan and meeting the founders. In reality, people often copy the choices of others. Diners pick the crowded restaurant over the empty one. Investors go with the company that already has multiple backers.
真正有经验的食客会根据饭菜的质量和厨师的经验来选择餐馆,有眼光的投资者会在研究了商业计划并同创始人会面之后才决定投资哪家公司。但在实际生活中,人们却经常原封不动地照搬别人的选择:就餐者常去顾客盈门的餐馆,而不去那些没人光顾的地方,投资者好选择那些早已被大多数人所看好的公司。
Such bandwagon effects are not necessarily irrational. Often, the buyer knows less about a product than the seller; the collective wisdom of the crowd can correct for such “asymmetric information”. It can also be a way of coping with a surplus of choice: rather than study 100 models of music player, why not assume the market has already figured out the duds?
此类从众效应不一定是非理性的。一般来说,买方对商品的了解要少于卖方,而大众的集体智慧却可以作为这种“不对称信息”的修正而存在。除此之外,集体智慧还可以是在选择对象过剩时的一种应对方法:与其去比较100种不同型号的音乐播放机,为什么不假设那些不实用的型号已被市场淘汰了呢?