今日凌晨的全球乳制品拍卖中,乳制品均价为2458美元/吨,较前次仅上涨1.9%,远差于市场预期的5%-10%。
失望的数据使得纽币在近期的高位迅速回落,纽币对美元由数据公布之前的0.68附近一度下滑近60余点至0.6742后回调,截止新西兰时间8点30分,其汇率运行于0.6758附近。
本次拍卖价格中,全脂奶粉的价格增长1.8%至2304美元/吨,仍然距理想价位3000美元/吨有很大距离。其价格由今年2月最高均价3272美元/吨,跌至8月最低1590美元/吨,10月出现反弹至2824美元/吨,后又持续走低。
3000美元是新西兰恒天然乳业固体奶在本年底至明年初预期收购价格4.6纽币/千克的价格支撑,而DairyNZ的最新调查绝大多数奶农的理想价格是5.4纽币/千克,这使得新西兰奶农的收益更让人担忧。
本次全球乳制品拍卖情况
全球乳制品10年价格指数走势
数据来源:Globledairytrade
驻芝加哥的乳品专家Jon Spainhour表示,在恒天然乳业逐步减产的情况下,本次的乳品拍卖结果对市场也许是一个熊市的信号。
由于价格并没有因为减产而有明显的改善。他说道:“在过去,这(减产)将 引起市场更大的反应”。价格难以回升,仍旧是由于欧洲乳品生产量增加。他相信欧洲正逐步抢占美国与新西兰的买方市场,使得市场更加饱和。
上周,恒天然乳业将未来12个月的全脂奶粉产量缩减了3.763吨,削减幅度达9.7%。这也使得年度全球乳制品产量降至35.2万吨,是5年来低位。
本次乳制品价格的上涨幅度让人失望,市场前景不为乐观。
纽币在近期有持续走高迹象,但昨日由于乳制品价格不及预期出现高位回落。同时,明天将有市场瞩目已久的美国联邦公开市场委员会的议息会议,美国加息可能短期内进一步推高美元,加之新西兰央行上周的下调利率,也许纽币将迎来又一波跌势。
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