原油抄底之梦始终难圆，油价在2月份触底反弹后，近期再呈下行态势。
目前纽约商品交易所的西德克萨斯原油WTI期货价格由3月份高点42.40美元跌至目前的35.46美元附近，跌幅达16.4%；4月份开月以来延续下跌态势，昨日再跌3.53%至35.46；伦敦商品交易所布伦特原油期货价格昨日下跌1.9%，自3月份高位以来跌幅达12%。
石油商家们最近又在吹的什么风？近期热炒的几大商家的故事要从 沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯与伊朗说起…
产油国难以联合减产，伊朗为羁绊
据彭博社消息， 沙特阿拉伯副王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼表示只有伊朗冻结石油产量的前提下，其才会实行同样的行动。但由于伊朗在被解除经济制裁后，为挽回10年来所造成的经济损失，并无意对其原油产量冻结而失去正在复苏的原油出口市场。此前沙特阿拉伯协同俄罗斯、卡塔尔与委内瑞拉宣布去将联合冻结产量的意向，导致油价触底反弹，但联合意向只有在伊朗的配合下才有可能真正赋注行动。油产商们将在4月17日再次汇集卡塔尔首都多哈进行商谈，伊朗表示将出席此次会议。
上个月，伊朗石油部长Bijan Zanganeh 表示伊朗将提高原油产量至4百万桶/天，是自2008年以来最大产量。彭博社统计数据显示，伊朗3月份原油产量增长10万桶/日至320万桶，其产量达自2012年以来最大。
伊朗石油产量走势（2015年4月-2016年2月）
原油空头头寸激增
由于沙特副王储的一席讲话，市场对于联合冻结产量的达成产生怀疑，根据美国商品期货交易委员会数据统计，截至3月29日，WTI原油空头头寸数量增至自11月份以来最高。其中空头头寸增长11167张合约至75598，涨幅17%。多头头寸下滑6.3%至221016。
对于西德克萨斯原油WTI来看，42美元始终是个难以突破的关口。空头选择在此入场主要是由于基本面并无确定支撑原油上涨的理由，目前35美元将是近期较为重要的支持价格。有可能会出现短期反弹，但如果4月17日并无让改善原油供给过剩的协议达成，则可能原油会破位下跌转为熊市。
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