美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在北京凌晨时间发布了关于3月份的货币政策会议内容。如市场预期,所述之基调显示出强烈鸽派,一些会议成员认为4月份加息将为之过急,并不是适宜之举。
在会议的辩驳结果来看,4月份加息几乎无望,更大程度上将聚焦于6月份。美联储的鸽派态度导致美元再度下行,美元指数冲高回落,由最高95.07跌至94.49。
美联储对于近期以至长期的基准利率预期下调
根据美联储会议内容,3月份对于自2016-2018年以至长期的联邦基准利率预期均相对于12月份预期值有所下调(如下图)。会议成员对于联邦基金率2016-2017年预期中位数均下降0.5个百分点至 0.88%与1.88%;对于2018年预期中位数下降0.5个百分点至3%;对于长期基准利率的预期中位数下降0.25个百分点至3.25%。并且再次强调了基准利率需要逐步(Gradual)上调,并在未来的三年里(至2018年)都将保持低位运行。
美联储成员3月份对于联邦基准利率的预期值相对于12月份下降
资料来源:美国FOMC
通过会议成员对于美国本国的经济活动、劳动力市场与通胀率及其相关潜在风险的判断,有三个方面的因素是其主要但之处,包括:“国外经济现状的薄弱状况、美元的持续强势与金融形势的收紧。这些因素将继续抑制经济增长,表明联邦基金基准利率需要保持暂时低位”。
全球各大股指再次上行
昨日,低利率环境与美元的走低再度引发全球各大股指的上行,美国标普指数500涨(+1.05%);英国富实指数100涨(+1.16%);欧洲斯托克指数50涨(+0.66%);澳指200涨(+0.44%);香港恒生指数50涨(+0.15%)。由于日元对美元大涨,唯独日经指数225跌(-0.11%)。
美国国债收益率从短期到长期本月呈现全线下行,美国2年期国债收益率下跌0.13个百分点至0.73%,美国10年期国债收益率下跌0.12个百分点至1.75%。
美国国债收益率变化
资料来源:彭博社
货币方面,其他货币相对于美元呈现再度上行,欧元对美元涨0.13%,最高触及1.1432;美元对日元跌0.49%,下破110点关口;澳币对美元涨0.72%,纽币对美元涨0.30%;英镑是主要货币中唯一对美元跌的一只,下跌0.28%至1.4118。黄金出现回撤(-0.74%),WTI原油期货价格涨5.24%至37.77美元/桶。
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