步入第二季度，新西兰经济终见一些利好消息给这个美丽富饶的太平洋岛国带来欣喜。
一是周一公布的新西兰第一季度就业信心指数有所 提升，终于在3年低位中实现连续两个季度上涨；二是数据 昨日全球乳制品价格终于在2016年的7次拍卖中实现第二次上涨，也是本年度的最大幅度上涨。
纽币兑美元汇率自二月以来呈现连续上行，涨幅达5.5%，目前在0.68附近运行。纽币兑离岸人民币汇率由4月份低点4.26涨至目前4.40附近，涨幅达3.3%。
新西兰就业信心指数显示乐观向好
本次西太平洋银行-麦克德莫米勒就业信心指数（Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index）调查结果显示，新西兰第一季度就业信心指数上涨3.3个点至104.8，是继2015年第四季度后的第二次上涨。此指数在100以上表示为积极指标。目前状态指数（The present conditions index）较上个季度上涨5.5个点至99.7，就业预期指数（The expectations index）上涨1.8个点至108.3。并且在抽样调查结果中显示居民收入增加，1554人中的28.2%收入有上涨，较15年第四季度的21.7%有较大改善。
新西兰就业信心的近期好转主要依托于两个方面，一是2015年净移民数量增加给新西兰劳动力市场带来活力，表现在新就业岗位的增加与工资的上浮，这是较好的通胀环境表现；二是借助于较为宽松的货币环境，央行连续降低利息减少了借贷成本，并鼓励消费与生产，经济活力的增强是提增就业信心的关键因素。
但根据NZIER（NZ Institute of Economic Research）数据统计，新西兰第一季度商业信心指数有所下降，主要是由于成本增加导致，最为突出为建筑业与金融服务行业，这可能将预示着新西兰央行将再次下调官方利率。目前的利率水平为2.25%，4月份可能有再次下调的可能至2%。央行下次议息会议将于本月28日举行。
全球乳制品拍卖价格终有所上行
在昨日的全球乳制品拍卖中价格终有所上行，乳制品平均价格上涨2.1%至2188美元/公吨。其中全脂奶粉价格上涨1.5%，脱脂奶粉仅上涨0.1%，凝乳酶干酪素仍然涨幅最大，上涨11.8%，同时黄油与黄油奶粉有所下跌，跌幅分别为-2.0%与-8.2%。
全球乳制品价格变化走势
资料来源：GlobalDairyTrade
但AgriHQ乳品分析师Susan Kilsby表示：“欧洲乳产品由于政府支持继续冲击全球市场，奶制品产量会继续增加”，对于乳品价格的复苏仍然预期不大。目前新西兰恒天然乳业的2015-16年预期价格在3.90纽币/千克，恒天然在3月份将价格由4.15纽币/千克进行了下调。新西兰乳制品价格本年度仍旧难以复苏，这种低迷情况有可能会持续到2017年。
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