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Source: Petro Global News

HOUSTON – It may be a quarter century before crude prices return to the high levels that stimulated a domestic shale drilling boom until prices collapsed late last year, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Wednesday.

That’s partly because worldwide energy consumption through 2040 is set to grow at one-third its pace from 1970 to 2013, with sinking growth in oil demand is one of several factors that will keep crude markets from bouncing back quickly, OPEC said in its annual World Oil Outlook report.

The international oil cartel assumes its crude prices in real 2014 dollars will double to $70 a barrel in 2020 and climb to $95 a barrel in 2040 – a 9 percent drop from its forecast last year. OPEC believes global oil demand growth in 2020 will be about half of the 2015 level, as the economic benefits of low crude prices slowly wear off.

“In many countries the price of crude accounts for a relatively low share of the retail price of final oil products,” OPEC said.

While taxes account for just 14 percent of retail fuel prices in the United States, in many other countries in Europe and elsewhere, taxes and the cost of getting the crude to market dictate prices at the pump. In other words, the fluctuating oil price doesn’t boost demand overseas as much as it does stateside.

For crude producers in Houston and elsewhere, OPEC has taken a gloomy outlook compared to the quick “V-shaped” recovery many analysts had predicted earlier this year.

OPEC said the world’s appetite for oil will likely be constrained by the depreciation of currencies against the U.S. dollar and improvements in how efficiently oil is consumed by vehicles, among other market forces.

Prospects for rapid economic growth in emerging markets have dimmed somewhat, particularly in China and other parts of Asia, a key oil-consuming region that helped drive the price of oil up to more than $100 a barrel in the past decade.

And by 2020, OPEC expects oil demand to decline in developed nations by 200,000 barrels a day. Overall, total global demand for crude could rise to 97.4 million barrels a day by 2020, up 7 percent.

Meanwhile, the recent crude price crash has prompted oil companies to cut an estimated $200 billion in spending on new projects, particularly high-cost deep-water drilling and oil sands production. Capital expenditures worldwide are supposed to come in 20 percent lower this year, OPEC said.

But one factor that could keep the oil market from recovering quickly is that U.S. shale oil, one of the world’s most flexible sources of crude supplies, could increase at a brisk pace if prices rise. U.S. shale production has dropped by about half a million barrels a day this year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. But that outage “is seen as temporary,” OPEC said.

“An assumed gradual price recovery in the coming years will also lead to higher production,” OPEC said. The cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, expects U.S. shale and Canadian oil sands output to increase by about 1.7 million barrels a day through 2020, while production in Russia, Europe, Mexico and other regions outside of the 13-member OPEC declines. OPEC believes its share of the oil market will rise from 33 percent last year to 37 percent in 2040.

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