3月1日 ：ANZ银行新年首份调查报告显示，商业信心加强。净41%的公司预期业务在明年增长，这一比例超过12月份的37%。持这一看法的公司涵盖了各行各业，包括零售、制造、农业、建造与服务业。
盈利预期、雇员扩招与投资意愿均有所上涨。净34%的公司预期业务将改善，与12月份相比超出四个百分点。ANZ银行首席经济学家Cameron Bagrie称，“总体信心" 、盈利预期与雇员扩招均从消极转为积极。”奶制品价格上涨无疑是助因之一" 。随着干旱越来越普遍，农民已开始更加从容地应对。净23%的公司预期在接下来3个月上涨价格，这一比例与12月份相比超出了三个百分点。
1月份1年通胀预期已经从12月份的2.1%下降为1.7%，与1999年5月份的历史地位持平。Westpac银行经济学家Michael Gordon指出，通胀预期下降并不令人感到意外，尤其考虑到近期油价大跳水影响一年的通胀率。"坦白而言，即便1.7%的通胀预期似乎偏高."
“总的来说 ，这份报告表明新西兰经济持续增长势头，尽管今年年初天气干旱拉低了农业产出，进一步影响了GDP增速。通胀压力仍受到抑制" ，储备银行处于观望中。”
要点
• 净41%的公司预期未来12个月业务增长
• 净34%的公司预期总业务将改善
• 净23%的公司预期未来3个月会上调价格
ANZ’s first survey of the year shows companies across all sectors expect rise in activity.
Business confidence has strengthened in ANZ's first survey of the year.
A net 41 per cent of firms expect their own activity to increase over the next year, up from 37 per cent in December. The improvement was across all sectors - retail, manufacturing, agriculture, construction and services.
Profit expectations, and hiring and investment intentions have also lifted. A net 34 per cent expect the general business situation to improve, up four points from December.
"In cricketing parlance, New Zealand's innings is progressing nicely," said ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie.
"There are runs on the board: we're into the fifth year of economic expansion with depth down the order. The economy isn't knocking the ball out of the park; we're nudging ones and twos but accumulating nicely."
Agriculture was the major mover this month, Bagrie said. "General confidence, profit expectations and employment intentions in the sector have flipped from negative to positive.
Higher dairy prices are no doubt working their magic," he said. "Such a bounce-back is particularly welcome considering the challenges delivered by Mother Nature."
With droughts becoming more common, farmers appeared far better placed to adapt and respond, he said.
A net 23 per cent of firms overall expect to raise their prices in the next three months, up three points from the December survey.
"But the level is still tame," Bagrie said. And inflation expectations one year ahead have eased to 1.7 per cent from 2.1 per cent in December, equalling the record low in May 1999.
Westpac economist Michael Gordon said the fall in inflation expectations was not surprising, as the recent plunge in fuel prices would still affect the annual inflation figures a year from now. "Frankly, even 1.7 per cent seems on the high side for a year-ahead forecast," he said.
"Overall, the survey suggests a continuation of the economy's above-trend pace of growth over the last couple of years, notwithstanding the temporary hit to GDP growth in the first half of this year as the drought weighs on agricultural output. But with price pressures remaining in check, the Reserve Bank can afford to sit on the sidelines for [some time]."
Bagrie said the narrow band within which responses to the survey had ranged over the past year was telling. "Amidst global wobbles, commodity spasms, currency gyrations, house price palpitations and an election, life has gone on," he said.
"If you want to see what it means when the get-on-with-it vibe is absent, jump across the Ditch."
Heading up
• Net 41% of firms expect their own activity to increase over the next 12 months.
• Net 34% expect the general business situation to improve.
• Net 23% expect to raise their prices in the next three months.
- NZ Herald
