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Remember the villainous oil cartel of the 1970s that embargoed petroleum sales and quadrupled the price of crude? Forty years later, oil prices areat historical lows in real terms. While not dead, OPEC is certainly limping, and with oil prices unlikely to rise significantly anytime soon, it could enter the ICU, especially if structural factors—rather than transitory or one-off policy changes or unexpected disturbances—continue to further soften demand while not appreciably curtailing supply in the short run. What’s the outlook for 2016 (and likely beyond)?

Global demand for oil is not expected to grow much due to an increasingly hobbled Chinese economy, a Japanthat remains in the economic doldrums, and a slowly growing Europe. Accompanying this could be a movement (albeit incremental) away from consumption of fossil fuels, especially in automobiles—if technological break throughs continue, heightened congestion in urban area sentice more commuters to rely on mass transit, and there is a greater shift byemployers in permitting their employees to work remotely.

At the same time do not discountthe heightened anxiety about global warming in playing a larger role in curbingthe world’s appetite for oil. The significant press attention given to this month’s Paris Agreement sensitized the public to the accumulating evidence and the risks. And this has only been exacerbated by the record-setting warm temperatures so far during this year’swinter in the US.

On the supply side, the Saudis—despite the Kingdom’s recent acknowledgment of a significant budget deficit precisely at a time when there is greater demand and expectation fordomestic reform—will try to stick to their high level of output. These forces, however, may well compel the Saudis to depreciate the riyal and abandon their decade-long US dollar-pegged exchange rate, since the value of a barrel of oil, which is priced in US dollars, is now so low.

The fact is that the Kingdom is boxed-in by a twin strategy to maintain their market share in the oil-consuming advanced countries and to discipline their oil-producing foes in the MiddleEast, especially Iran and, to a lesser extent, Iraq—not to mention Mr. Putin,whose economy, twenty years after the ‘nominal’ break-up of the Soviet Union,remains as concentrated on oil as ever.

Indeed, especially now in light of the recent rupture in diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran asa result of the Saudi execution of a prominent Shiite cleric, coupled with the Riyadh’s discounting of its oil on the European market—where Iran has been abig supplier—if anything, this may be an oil price ‘race to the bottom’.

For the Iranians, not only will there be anincentive to try to undercut the Saudis on price terms, but Iran is likely to expand production, especially if its geo-political fortunes with the Westimprove. Iraq may well do the same.

At the same time, the UAE has signaled its willingness to maintain production, not only in alliance with the Saudis vis a vis the Iranians, but also because Abu Dhabi needs to provide abackstop for Dubai, should the finance-centric, non-oil producing emirate fallvictim to disturbances in international capital markets as it did in 2008.

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