昨日,中国沪指再度下滑2.42%,失守3000整数关口。美国股市亦在一日反弹后,再次全线跌落,截至北京时间凌晨4点钟,美国标普指数500下跌2.25%,在此跌破1900整数关口;道琼斯指数下跌1.91%至16200点。
原油价格继续下滑,伦敦商品交易所英国布伦特原油期货价格自2004年以来首次跌破30美元;黄金、欧元、日元出现反弹,商品货币澳币、纽币再度下滑。
市场似乎再次向“避险”转向。也许正像摩根大通近日来向投资者所建议的-要在股市反弹的时刻做空。
多方表示提高风险警觉
摩根大通一位股票分析师在报告中表示,目前股市孕育着危机的风险,并不像7年以前一样可以寻机逢低做涨。他主张,投资者应该寻机在股市反弹之时,寻机做空。同时,他也表示,对企业将公布的第四季度财务报告表示担忧。
著名投资人乔治•索罗斯也表示,目前的经济形势有如08年金融危机。他曾在2011年9月的华盛顿会议上说,希腊所引发的欧洲债务问题“比2008危机更为严重”。乔治•索罗斯的对冲资金公司自1969年至2011年平均每年盈利20%,其净资产达273亿美元。他还说道,中国目前面临向新的增长模式过渡的难题,人民币的贬值引发对于全球经济的连锁反应。
新兴市场仍面临金融风险
伴随人民币连续4日大幅升值,新兴市场国家的货币出现3个月以来最大涨幅,但摩根士丹利与德国商业银行均表示,这将可能是短期反弹,警示投资者要减持。
据彭博社数据统计,昨日中国12月份贸易数据公布后,由于贸易额盈余扩大,新兴市场20国货币总体上涨0.4%。但其报告称,这可能部分原因在于近日在岸人民币与离岸人民币的套利交易而致。
新兴市场货币指数走势
资料来源:彭博社
新兴市场的资金流动性吃紧,将有可能导致其货币的再度贬值。
根据KKR&Co.预测,大宗商品价格与于新兴市场货币的弱势可能会持续到今年年底。MSCI新兴市场基准股指自2014高点下跌61.57%。KRR全球宏观经济与资产配置团队的主管在报告中写道:“不幸的是,向前看,2016年可能是较为混乱的一年”。
MSCI新兴市场基准股指走势
资料来源:彭博社
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