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Source: FUELFIX
Oil prices won’t rebound to $100 a barrel before2020 to 2025, when U.S. shale production will gradually start to decline,according to a former head of the International Energy Agency.
Demand for crude in China, India, Southeast Asiaand Africa will drive up global prices in the “long term,” Nobuo Tanaka, whoserved for four years as the IEA’s executive director, said in aninterview in Abu Dhabi. Tanaka left the IEA, an advisory body to the world’sindustrialized nations, in September 2011 and currently works as a professor atthe University of Tokyo School of Public Policy.
“Price will not go up to a hundred as easily asbefore,” Tanaka said. “The shale production in the U.S. will gradually slowdown after 2020 or 2025, so again there’s a chance of higher prices comingafter that.”
Brent crude, a global pricing benchmark, dropped 44percent in the last 12 months and was 20 cents higher at $50.06 a barrel onTuesday in London at 12:01 p.m. local time. The Organization of PetroleumExporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia, decided on June 5 to keep its crudeproduction target unchanged to force higher-cost producers such as U.S. shalecompanies to cut back. The producer group has exceeded its target for 16consecutive months, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Built-InStabilizer
“Shale production is a built-in stabilizer,” Tanakasaid. “OPEC used to manage the production to stabilize the price; that was theregime before but now when OPEC gave up this kind of function, now the shaleoil is acting in the market as a built-in stabilizer. These are new dynamics ofthe market.”
The gap between crude oil supply and demand willcontinue until the end of the year, and a supply shortfall may develop in thethird or fourth quarter of 2016, he said. “Until that time, if the currentsituation continues, the price will stay as low as the current one.
Iran, the fifth-largest producer in OPEC, ispreparing to bounce back from economic sanctions that choked off investment inits oil industry. The nation could boost output to 3.6 million barrels a dayfrom its current 2.9 million in six months, the Paris-based IEA said in in its monthly report Tuesday.
Iran has said it will increase oil exports by500,000 barrels a day within six months of the lifting of sanctions and thendouble that increase to 1 million barrels daily. “Certainly that eases themarket situation and means the oversupply will continue,” Tanaka said.
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