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西太银行（Westpac）的首席经济学家Bill Evans已放弃了他此前认为澳洲储备银行（RBA）将两度减息的预期，转而预计央行将在2015年加息。

Evans的观点一直以来都受到交易员的密切关注，因为他是唯一一位成功预测上一个经济周期转折点的经济学家，RBA在此转折点开始减息。2011年6月份他大胆预测，RBA将开始削减官利，虽然央行直到当年的11月份才开始减息，但Evans还是成功预测到了这一趋势。

在此之前，Evans与国民银行的首席经济学家Alan Oster依然是最悲观的利率预测员之一，他们认为疲软的国内需求将迫使RBA进一步采取宽松的货币政策。

不过西太银行现今预计，RBA在今年剩余的时间里将继续将官利维持在历史最低位，并在明年第三季度首次提高利率。

上周，澳洲统计局向市场投放了一颗重磅炸弹，2月份的全职就业岗位劲增4万7300个，创下自1991年以来的最大增幅。

与此同时，西太银行还调整了它对澳币的预期。该行将2015年3月份澳币对美元的汇率预期从此前的85美仙上调至87美仙。受到Evans上调汇率预期的影响，周一澳币反弹至日内最高点90.5美仙。

投资部主管Rachel Zhang表示，加息不会阻碍中国购房者的海外购房欲望，因为大多数国内投资者对于澳洲房产的“以息抵供”和主要几个高增长区域的数据通过集房的平台已经非常熟悉，在短期不会造成太大的影响。

摘自英文版原文：

《Westpac chief economist Bill Evans predicts rates will rise next year》

18 March 2014

By Vesna Poljak  (Senior markets reporter)

Closely followed Westpac chief economist Bill Evans has changed his prediction of two more rate cuts by the Reserve Bank, instead predicting a rate rise in 2015.

Mr Evans' views have been watched by traders because he was the only economist to successfully predict the last turn in the economic cycle when the RBA began easing.

He went out on a limb in June 2011 when he forecast the RBA would cut interest rates. Though it didn't cut until November that year when more economists shared his view, Mr Evans still got the credit.

Westpac now has rates on hold for the rest of the year and the first rate rise in the third quarter of next year.

The change came about even as global markets remained on edge as Russia's actions in Ukraine and China's slowing economy spooked investors. Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index and the broader All Ordinaries Index each lost 0.2 per cent on Monday to 5317.6 and 5335.2 respectively.

Mr Evans still thinks the economy would be better off with lower rates but it was clear the RBA was unlikely to waver. ''Given their rhetoric and their clear resistance to changing rates the case needed to be very strong,'' he said.

At this point in the cycle, he said, two rate cuts were equivalent to one, hence the change in his prediction from the cash rate bottoming out at 2 per cent to about 18 months of stable rates at 2.5 per cent before the next rise.

The economy delivered a jobs shock last week when it was revealed that February saw the biggest surge in full-time jobs since 1991, with a 47,300 rise in employment.

Westpac modified its Australian dollar forecast with a target of US87¢ by March 2015 rather than US85¢.

Westpac was not the only bank factoring in more rate cuts. National Australia Bank and Bank of America-Merrill Lynch are both among those that think the RBA has more to do and NAB chief economist Alan Oster was standing by his call on Monday.

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch chief economist Saul Eslake also maintained his conviction. ''Our view has been there would be one more cut, sometime in the second half of the year. We haven't changed that view as yet,'' he said. ''We remain of the view, notwithstanding some recent data which challenges it, that growth will remain below trend and unemployment will continue to rise for longer than the RBA now does; and we aren't as pessimistic as the RBA seems to be about the near-term inflation outlook.''

Mr Eslake conceded he was influenced by indications from the RBA about the effectiveness of another rates cut, but not enough to modify his view.

''We find it hard to believe that the RBA would do nothing in the face of unemployment continuing to rise, as we think it will, throughout this year and possibly into 2015 as well.''

Mr Evans said in his report on Monday that optimistic signs were emerging to overtake the dominant theme of a weak labour market and its consequences for spending, investment, employment and income.

''We still see those forces operating to moderate growth and inflation pressures but now assess that better news on employment; consumption; and business confidence will dampen those contractionary forces to exclude a sufficiently strong case to cut rates,'' he wrote.

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