自上周五原油大幅反弹后，似乎市场便显现出原油触底的苗头。而昨日基本面上也出现了些许支持原油反弹的言论，伊朗石油部长在奎瓦特的会议上称沙特与俄罗斯对于联合石油减产的方案更加灵活。
经过周一的大幅回撤后，原油价格昨日再度出现颠覆性的反弹。纽约证券交易所3月份西德克萨斯原油价格在周一回撤至30后，昨日再次上涨1.1美元至31.40美元/桶。同时，英国布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.29美元至31.76美元/桶。
西德克萨斯原油期货价格经历12年低位后终于反弹
数据来源: 彭博社
俄罗斯与欧派克国家可能进行原油减产
据彭博社消息，昨日俄罗斯第二石油供应商Lukoil副主席Leonid向官方媒体宣布俄罗斯可能与欧派克国家协同减少原油供给. 在过去的一年里，由于主要产油商为抢占石油市场，谁也无减产之意，加之中国需求减弱的情况下，原油价格持续下滑以至12年低位。沙特阿拉伯与俄罗斯如果能够达成减产协议，则将引领原油价格自此触底反弹。
但目前状况来看，石油供给量仍然过剩，美国能源信息管理中心统计数据，截至到1月16日的一周，美国原油库存量达4.865亿桶，超过5年的季度平均水平1亿桶。欧派克国家与俄罗斯曾坚持其石油产量以将产油成本较高的美国排挤出市场之外。而目前在减产协议未真正达成之前，并不能绝对肯定石油价格反弹之路的开始。
油价反弹催涨全球股市，中国股市仍跌
随原油价格的上涨，昨日全球股市也继续周五的涨势再度反弹，截至北京时间凌晨4点22分，美国道琼斯指数上涨1.46%至16118.16，美国标普指数500上涨1.09%至1897.33；欧洲斯托克指数50上涨1.03%至3032.84；英国富实指数100上涨0.59；德指30上涨0.89%;澳指200上涨1.84%。而中国股市昨日却再度破位下滑，沪指跌破2800，下跌幅度达6%。中国目前仍然面临资本外流的明显压力。
各大央行将如何反映?
由于1月份以来金融市场的大幅震荡，尤其是原油价格与股市的大幅下跌，使得央行们加息者偏软，宽松则更宽。那么近日的回稳迹象，也许会使得各大央行稍呼出一口气，美联储也许会对于其加息进程更加强硬，而对于有再扩宽松的央行们也可能会暂停观望。那么，如果美联储继续加息进程，则美元有望再度走强。
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