在投资者瞩目于中国股市和人民币走势之时，不要忽视欧洲市场可能酝酿着再扩宽松而引发欧元的再次大跌。油价低走而继续拉低通胀率将使欧央行扩大宽松的重要因素。
欧央行近期对于通胀率的预期为本年度实现1%增长，2017年实现1.6%的增长。而国际油价新年伊始便一路狂跌，看似难以短期收闸止跌，28美元也难以支持。这可能会使欧央行出于通胀率目标考虑而在再扩货币宽松。欧元区去年12月份的通胀率水平仅为0.2%，低于预期水平。一些专家预测其通胀率水平在本年度上半年可能降到负增长。
据彭博社数据统计，多于60%的经济学家预计欧洲将在本年度再次扩大货币宽松政策，12月份只有40%的经济学家有所预期。
欧洲央行近两期的货币政策会议将分别于本月21日(周四)与3月10日举行，如果本月油价无好转之机，则很可能会在3月份的会议上欧央行将再扩宽松。这意味着欧元可能会再度出现大跌之势。
经济学家对于欧央行再度宽松的预期统计
数据来源：彭博社
欧洲央行的量化宽松始于去年3月份，开始实行每月600亿国债的资产购买计划一直到2016年9月份，这将意味着将有1.1万亿欧元注入到欧洲市场中。当月欧元对美元大跌至12年新低至1.46附近。
在12月份的会议上，行长德拉吉宣布欧央行将延长资产购买计划的时间至2017年年底，并将存款利率由-0.2%下调至-0.3%，还将资产购买项目的到期本金在投资。但由于宽松扩大力度未达市场预期，欧元当日反弹400余点。
欧元对美元走势图
近期，由于中国股市大幅震荡下滑与人民币大幅贬值问题，伊朗被解除经济制裁后加大原油产量使得油价被继续打压，引发全球市场股市纷纷跳水，避险成为近期交易员的主导思路。
欧元作为避险之选货币而出现低位反弹，但欧元对美元始终无法突破重要的阻力位置1.1关口，也许在全球经济的连锁反应下并不是长期避险之用的依托者，如果欧洲再度扩大宽松，欧元有可能会再度下滑甚至跌破前低，向与美元平价的方向趋进。
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