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EB-5世界的变化
EB-5世界在变化。接下来的几个月会很关键。本文将讨论的是一些已经发生的，以及将要发生的。
关于EB-5区域中心计划的延期
区域中心计划将于9月30日到期。这不是什么新闻，从2003年起就一直在延期，通常是全票通过或者接近全票通过。在最近几周之前，还没有任何原因好担心今年有什么不同。然而，几周前，从华盛顿传来的消息，给法案的延期制造了很大的不确定性。
参议院的新任司法委员会主席，Iowa州参议员，Charles Grassley，从来就不是EB-5的粉丝，已经明确表示他希望将改革EB-5作为该计划延期的条件。前任主席， Vermont州的Patrick Leahy，EB-5的强力支持者，也指出他很快会推出一项EB-5的新法案，该法案看起来至少有一些方面是Grassley议员所倡导的。国土安全部部长Jeh Johnson就EB-5计划，给了以上两位议员的信函，也有很多是同 Grassley议员倡议相吻合的。
所以，有如下可能：
a. EB-5计划不能获得延期。这种可能性很低。
b. 区域中心计划可能获得短暂延期（6个月或者更短），国会以此来争取些时间来争议并通过EB-5法案的修改。这是非常现实可能的。
c. 国会在9月30日之前，就EB-5法案达成一致，将其变更并且延展3年。当前，很多人认为这是最可能发生的；但是，当我们接近9月份的大限时，上面说的b就更有可能会发生。
d. EB-5计划获得无变更的延期。尽管不是特别现实，这也还是有可能的，特别是如果9月30日的大限临近或者过期，并且没有达成就EB-5计划变更的一致。
e. 国会将EB-5计划永久化。这是当前所高度期望的。
对区域中心计划的可能变革
就法案变更的各种可能而言，有两点是最关键的。
第一，增加最低投资金额。几乎可以肯定的是，一旦EB-5计划有所变更，就会包括增加最低投资金额的条款。很有可能的是，TEA（目标就业区）的金额增长到80万美金，其他区域增加到120万美金。可能会有持续的根据通胀的调整。考虑到自1990年起，EB-5计划的价格都没有调整过，很多人认为涨价是没有争议的。
对于中国投资者来说，影响不单是投资更多的人民币。再多证明60%的投资款，对很多投资者将会非常有挑战。也许，更显著的是，传统的通过10个人转款的方式，将不得不增加到16个人。投资者将需要更多的家庭成员或者朋友协助办理。为了避免这样的结果，更多投资者将会选择在法案变更之前选择投资。
第二，很有争议的是TEA的认定。Grassley和Leahy议员，以及Johnson部长，都被认为在考虑限制，州政府基于人口普查区域认定TEA的政策。Johnson部长的信件，建议限制连续的人口普查区域的数字。如果有任何就州政府认定TEA的联邦层面的限制，那么非常重要的是，法律需要能界定一个足够大的区域，能够覆盖在EB-5工作的员工的通勤距离，特别是在城市。仅仅武断地选择一个人口普查区的数字，将可能限制很多或者大多数城市的TEA区域，虽然这些项目会从高失业区域吸收工人。对于区域中心和开发商来说，这是最需要倡议的。
其他的法规变更，可能会包括USCIS获得更大授权，就违法或者安全原因，取消区域中心授权，并且规范区域中心负责人。
一旦，部分或者所有法规的变更发生，很快就会知道国会将法案生效日设定在何时，法案溯及力，对于已经有投资的项目的影响，等等。对于已经在计划、融资或者EB-5募资中的项目而言，这都是关键信息。当前设计的项目文件，都需要考虑到这些变化。
当区域中心计划延期和延期所牵涉的各种悬念，成为主要恐惧的时候，下面一些变化也会成为EB-5市场的关键因素。
中国EB-5排期：
自5月1日起排期开始，但是影响还是不确定的。虽然中国投资者移民美国的更长等待，会影响一些人，但是主流的观点是，绝大多数的投资者会继续选择投资。同时，还有一个体会是，投资者们认识到现在就开始投资，会比一到两年后再投资，等的时间要短。同时，还非常有可能的是，当前市场的不确定性，会使得今年比以前预期的递交I-526申请的投资者少。再黑暗的地方也有一线光明，那丝光明就是，较少的EB-5申请，会缩短排期等待的队伍。
资金来源证明：
在过去几个月，USCIS（移民局）开始就投资者的资金来源证明文件，签发RFE（补件回函）、NOID（意向拒签信）和拒签，在之前从来没有导致过拒签的问题上。USCIS在4月22日的利益相关者会议上，明确了其现在的态度（不清楚是否是完全的政策变化）。虽然我们的经验是，政策的改变将会影响大概10-15%的投资者，一些代理指出这个比例可能更高。至少，投资者需要变更他们资金来源证明的方式。特别是，使用非投资者本人所拥有房产的贷款，部分或者全部，都有可能会使得I-526申请被拒。这可能会引发诉讼，我们将另行讨论。
负面宣传：
这些负面宣传正在对EB-5行业造成损害。财富杂志、ABC新闻及其他媒体均把EB-5行业当作他们发泄的替罪羊。直到EB-5行业能够抵消负面宣传的时候，它才有可能熬过这关继续前行。
对Mayorkas的调查报告：
美国国土安全部检察官对于前USCIS局长Mayorkas的调查报告指出，因其涉及关于EB-5计划的行为而受到谴责。这可能不会产生很大的影响，但加之其他负面性报道，这就产生了累积效应。
SEC的调查：
SEC已经对区域中心和移民律师之间，就支付和接受费用及其他的证券违法行为进行的调查，早已不是什么秘密。调查的结果可能会在未来的3-4个月内对外全面公布。无论结果如何，对EB-5行业都没有任何帮助。
GAO（政府问责办公室）的报告：GAO大约将于今年夏季发布关于EB-5的报告。虽然目前还不知道该办公室的调查结果，但该事件至少在不明确的时间内增加了更多的不确定性。
如果，需要进行大力倡导EB-5计划的话，无论是对媒体还是国会，那么就是在当前！我的直觉告诉我，EB-5计划的未来，接下来的6个月将会是最为关键的时刻。
原文作者：H. Ronald Klasko，原文来源：blog.klaskolaw.com。
Changes in the EB-5 World
May 28th, 2015 by H. Ronald Klasko
The EB-5 world may be changing. The next several months will be critical. This blog will highlight some of the changes that have already occurred and others that are on the radar. Some of these changes will be the subject of separate blogs to follow.
Questions regarding Extension of Regional Center Program
The regional center program expires on September 30. This is not news, and it has been extended continuously since 2003, usually unanimously or close to unanimously. As recently as several weeks ago, there was no reason to believe that this year would be any different. However, in the last several weeks, much of the news coming out of Washington has created some uncertainty as to what an extension may entail.
The new chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Senator Charles Grassley of Iowa – never a big fan of EB-5 – has signaled that he wants changes in the EB-5 program as a condition to extending the program. Former Senate Judiciary Committee Chair, Senator Patrick Leahy of Vermont – a big fan of EB-5 – has indicated that he will very shortly be presenting an EB-5 bill that appears to align with at least some of the changes being advocated by Senator Grassley. DHS Secretary Jeh Johnson authored a letter to Senators Grassley and Leahy advocating changes in the EB-5 program (a number of which appear to be consistent with changes advocated by at least Senator Grassley). (The Johnson letter will be the subject of a separate blog.)
The result is that there are several possibilities:
a. The EB-5 program does not get extended. The chances of this remain remote.
b. The regional center program is extended for a short time (six months or less) while Congress debates the proposed changes. This is a very real possibility.
c. Congress agrees in advance of September 30 to changes to the EB-5 statute and extends the EB-5 program for three years with the changes. Currently, many think this is the most likely scenario; however as we continue to move quickly towards the September deadline, the circumstance outlined above in (b) becomes more likely.
d. The EB-5 program gets extended with no changes. This is still a possibility, albeit a remote one, especially if the September 30 deadline is imminent or has passed and there is no reasonable likelihood of debating proposed changes to the EB-5 program.
e. Congress extends the program permanently. In the present setting, this has to be viewed as highly aspirational in the short term.
Possible Changes to the Regional Center Program
Among the many legislative changes that are possible, two stand out as having the largest impact.
The first is an increase in the minimum investment amount. Almost certainly, the next time there is a legislative change to the EB-5 program, it will include an increase of the minimum investment amount. The most likely increase seems to be at or about $800,000 for TEAs and $1,200,000 for other investments. There will likely be an ongoing inflation adjustment. Given that there has been no change in the minimum investment amount since the program commenced in 1990, many believe that such an amendment would not be controversial.
For Chinese investors, the impact would not be just investing more RMBs. Documenting 60% more invested funds may be challenging for many investors. Perhaps more significantly, the traditional method of getting 10 friends and family to transfer $50,000 each to meet Chinese currency export restrictions would now require 16. Investors will need very large extended families or an expansive circle of friends. To avoid this result, many investors may choose to invest before any change in the law occurs.
The second change, which would be more controversial, is a change in the definition of a targeted employment area. Senators Grassley and Leahy, as well as Secretary Johnson, are reportedly considering limitations to state-designated TEAs based on census tract aggregation. The Johnson letter proposes a limited number of contiguous census tracts. If there is any federally imposed limitation on state-designated TEAs, it will be critical that the language encompasses a broad enough area to cover normal commuting distances for workers coming to work at EB-5 projects, especially in urban areas. Merely picking an arbitrary number of census tracts could eliminate many or most urban TEAs even though such projects draw employees from high unemployment areas. This is perhaps the most important area for advocacy by regional centers and developers.
Other legislative changes would likely include an expansion of USCIS authority to revoke regional center approvals based on criminal or security concerns and expansion of USCIS authority to regulate regional center principals.
If some or all of these legislative changes occur, it is too soon to know how Congress will legislate effective dates, retroactive application, grandfathered applications, impact on projects that already have some investors, etc. These are critical issues for investment projects that have already commenced planning, financing and/or EB-5 capital raises. Offering documents being prepared presently should account for these possibilities.
While the impending expiration of the regional center program and the suspense involving its extension are the primary causes of consternation, other changes are or will be playing a key role in the EB-5 market:
China EB-5 Quota Regression: Since the quota backlog just started on May 1, its impact is still uncertain. Although a longer wait for Chinese investors to immigrate to the U.S. may dissuade some, the prevailing sense is that a very high percentage of the investors who would have invested will continue to invest. There is also some sense that investors realize that the quota waiting list will only become longer over time and that an investment now will result in a much shorter wait than an investment a year or two later. It is certainly possible that an indirect effect of the uncertainty in the market presently is that there may be fewer I-526 petitions filed for the remainder of this fiscal year than had originally been anticipated. In the category of every cloud has a silver lining, the silver lining in this cloud may be that fewer new petitions result in the quota retrogression being shorter than originally anticipated.
Source of Funds Issue: Within the last few months, USCIS has begun issuing RFEs, NOIDs and denials for investor source of funds in factual scenarios that have never previously resulted in denials. USCIS confirmed its present position (without acknowledging the fact it was a complete change in position) during the stakeholders meeting on April 22. Although our experience is that the change in policy affects at most 10% to 15% of the investors, some agents advise that the percentage is higher. At the very least, this will require investors to change how they document the lawful source of their invested funds. Specifically, the practice of using indebtedness on a property that is owned by someone other than the investor to fund the investment, in whole or in part, is likely to result in a denial of the I-526 petition. This will likely be the subject of litigation and is the subject of another blog.
Adverse Publicity: This is taking its toll. Fortune Magazine, ABC News and other media outlets have adopted EB-5 as their whipping boys. Until the EB-5 industry is able to counteract the impact of this negative publicity, it will continue to act as a drag on the market.
The Mayorkas Report: By itself, the DHS Inspector General report chiding former USCIS Director Mayorkas for his activities relating to the EB-5 program might not have a major impact. Added to other negative publicity, it has a cumulative effect.
SEC Investigation: It is no secret that the SEC has been investigating regional centers and immigration attorneys in connection with issuance and acceptance of finders fees and possibly other securities violations. The results of these investigations are likely to become public over the next two or three months. Whatever the result, they will not be helpful to the EB-5 industry.
GAO Report: The U.S. Government Accountability Office will be issuing its report on EB-5 most likely this summer. While its findings are not presently known, at the very least it adds more uncertainty in very uncertain times.
If there were ever a time to advocate for the EB-5 program – whether it be to media or to legislative representatives – that time is now. It is my sense that the next six months will be pivotal in determining the parameters of the EB-5 program for many years to come.
