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来源: Fuel Fix

Postedon May 5, 2015

ByJordan Blum

Oilprices climbed above $60 a barrel Tuesday for the first time since December inwhat some analysts see as a sign that the oil slump could begin turning around.

Whileit’s largely a symbolic milestone after several weeks in which U.S. crude hasrisen from a six-year low of $43.46 March 17, the amount is near the thresholdwhere some exploration and production companies indicated they can profit nowthat the oil field services sector has lowered its prices in response to thedownturn.

U.S.benchmark crude rose $1.47 to $60.40 a barrel in New York Mercantile Exchangetrading Tuesday. It last topped $60 on Dec. 10, and remains far below its 2014high of $107.26 in June.

“For many it seems too subdued to reinvigorate the industry,” saidBill Herbert, managing director and co-head of securities for Simmons andCompany International in Houston. “But services costs have come down 20 percentto 50 percent in just four months.”

Pricesfell as a surge of U.S. production from shale formations boosted global oil suppliesbeyond demand. The Energy Department is projecting that shale production willfall this month after several years of growth, because companies have slashedtheir capital spending, job counts and rig activity in response to fallingprices. Also, global energy demand has slowly increased while geopoliticalconcerns continue to run high in the Middle East and elsewhere — all of whichcan contribute to higher oil prices.

Houston-basedshale producer EOG Resources indicated Tuesday that it is prepared to “resumestrong double-digit oil growth in 2016” if oil prices stabilize at $65 abarrel.

EOGhas a substantial backlog of wells it has drilled but has not yet completed,anticipating that oil prices will firm up in the second half of the year. CEOBill Thomas said in a conference call Tuesday to discuss first-quarter earningsthat well completions will increase in the third quarter of the year if pricescontinue their recovery.

Inanother earnings call Tuesday, the head of Anadarko Petroleum Corp., based inThe Woodlands, said oil prices have rebounded more quickly than he anticipated.

“In January, I thought we would be in this trough for a lot longer.And it looks like we’re coming out of it a little sooner from a pricestandpoint,” CEO Al Walker said — though he added he’s still pessimistic aboutrobust price growth this year.

PavelMolchanov, senior vice president and energy analyst with Raymond James inHouston, said oil producers’ jobs bloodletting and shrinking capital spendingover the past few months — “austerity on steroids” — has led the beginnings ofa turnaround more than anything.

“It’s painful for a lot of people, but this is the way to rebalancethe value chain,” Molchanov said, and oil traders have begun to respond.

Henoted that turmoil in Libya had limited production there, while Saudi Arabiahas shown signs of stabilizing its prices after months of cuts aimed atpreserving its market share.

“The Middle East continues to be a source of headlines,” Molchanovsaid. “That is, in a certain sense, bullish for oil.”

Herbertsaid he expects momentum for the energy sector to pick up toward the end of2015, with West Texas Intermediate reaching $65-$70 a barrel in 2016 and $75 in2017 — though he cautioned that the overall upward trend could include somedips.

“In the second half of this year, the industry will be in expansionmode,” Herbert said. “It’s methodical at first, and then it becomes more catharticand visible.”

Internationalbenchmark Brent crude also had a strong day Tuesday, rising $1.07 to $67.52.

Concernsthat strengthening oil prices might lead to rising inflation and interestrates, along with an impasse between Greece and its creditors, contributed to afall in U.S. stock indexes, the Associated Press reported.

TheDow Jones industrial average dropped 142.2 points to 17,928.20, the Standard& Poor’s 500 index lost 25.03 points to 2,089.46, and the Nasdaq compositefell 77.6 points to 4,939.33.

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