中国股市再现最差跌势,三日连续跌势,沪指跌幅近10%,再度下破2700关口,昨日收盘2638.30。今年中国股市累计跌幅近25%。自去年年6月份高点至今下滑幅度达48%,成为今年在全球93个基准股指中表现最差者。同时,中国香港H股指下跌17.6%,昨日收盘8038。据彭博社策略分析师与技术分析师表示,上证指数可能会继续下探2500。
上证指数与中国香港H股走势
数据来源:彭博社
国际燃料价格下滑使得交通运输行业市值降低
交通与运输行业的市值走低是领跌中国股市的直接因素。沪指成分股中,运输与交通板块领跌,中国船舶三日跌幅达20%,昨日单日跌幅近10%,一度跌停;中国南方航空公司三日跌幅达16%。运输与交通行业受影响最大主要是由于国际油价持续走低,而导致燃料价格下滑,其运输成本已达30年低位,很难实现营业额的增长,已导致市值的降低。
人民币贬值使得人民币资产被抛售
而目前伴随人民币贬值影响,导致人民币资产价值下滑,一些基金管理机构被迫抛空人民币资产,转由其他方面投资,也就是我们所说的资本外流,也是中国股市急速下滑的主要因素。
年初第一个星期离岸人民币便呈现再度大幅贬值,中国央行及时出手狙击人民币空头,使得人民币逐步趋稳。由于中国被批准加入国际储备货币,人民将逐步放开自由兑换幅度,在美联储加息,美元可能再度走强的预期下,给人民币贬值再行施加压力。
美联储加息,再施中国债务压力
国际上的影响因素是美联储的加息预期,美联储自去年12月份开始了其10年以来的第一次加息,将美国联邦基金利率上调0.25个基准点至小于0.5%。 昨日美联储议息会议中暗示,虽然目前经济形势不为乐观,但其加息预期仍然将逐步实施。一方面再度给人民币贬值施压,另一方面增加了中国的债务压力。
中国与其他新兴市场持有大量美债,美国加息,直接提高债务呈本是一个方面,另一方面人民币贬值使得债务偿还能力再度降低。中国央行自去年至今已经动用了大量的外汇储备。自去年以来,中国外汇储备量骤降,截至去年11月底,外汇储备量下降4050亿美元。
中国内部结构性产能过剩
除国际因素影响外,中国自身也存在产能过剩与需求放缓的问题。主要体现在基建行业的严重产能过剩,在这些行业中有不合标的产能出现,而并没有真正的转化为生产力,导致有效需求不足。同时,银行放给这些行业的资金并没有转化成为真正有效的生产力,则使得企业没有真正的通过市场需求来创造价值, 使得其债务负担越来越重而导致恶性循环。
中国正走在经济发展的转点之上,怎样由“生产”型经济转化为“消费”型经济是中国企业需要解决的重要方面。
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