澳洲联储(RBA)主席史蒂文斯(Glenn Stevens)周二晚间表示，利率可能在数年内保持在非常低的水平，同时抑制住房市场活动过度的任何举措需要仔细斟酌，不会采取粗暴措施。
史蒂文斯表示，鉴于矿业投资热潮消退，经济中存在充足的闲置产能，应会有力地抑制通胀。
他在一经济分析师宴会上表示：“在这种情况下，货币政策应保持宽松，并且以当前迹象判断，货币政策可能会在一段时间内维持宽松。”
实际上，史蒂文斯的言论令人感觉货币政策收紧是较为遥远的事情。
史蒂文斯称：“由于存在充足的闲置劳动力资源，因此在我们需要特别担心严重的通胀压力之前，非矿业行业成长率几年内可能可以高于趋势水平。”
金融市场走势暗示，澳洲联储至少未来12个月没有加息的可能，不过许多分析师认为或将到明年第三季度有所动作。
房价一直是澳洲经济的一个热点，最近几个月房价年增幅为两位数，主要归因于地产投资者的需求。
史蒂文斯强调称，这本身不是坏事，尤其这刺激了盼望已久的住宅建设的复苏，同时支撑了家庭财富和支出。“但要让宽松货币政策在整体支撑经济方面发挥最大作用，一些可能过热的领域不要失控会比较好。”
其结果是，澳洲联储与其他监管者一道制定“适当地调整和关注的行动”计划，来确保银行保持贷款标准。监管银行的澳洲审慎监管局(Australian
Prudential Regulation Authority)此前表示，可能在年底前公布从紧的信贷标准。
史蒂文斯指出，采取的任何措施目的都是为了延长房屋营建的复苏。他认为，在较长期保持高活跃度的营建，比急速繁荣和衰败的周期好的多。
澳洲联储副主席洛威(Philip Lowe)再度对澳元汇率实施口头干预，并指出澳元汇率下跌对澳大利亚经济有益，预计澳元或将进一步下跌，澳洲联储拟进一步降低贷款利率。
此举连续引发澳元/美元的加速下跌，今日汇价最低触及0.8523，刷新4年新低。加之澳联储欲继续降息，悉尼房地产市场将会更加火爆。
洛威强调，低利率很大程度保证了资产价格的不断上升，刺激消费需求，更加大消费者和投资者信心，继而广泛程度上刺激澳大利亚的经济市场。
事实上澳大利亚不断上涨的房价的确正引起更多澳洲当地及海外人士的注意，继而引发更多的相关建筑产业的兴盛。
<RBA opens door to interest rate cut>
· Date: November 26, 2014 - 7:14AM
Mark Mulligan
Markets and economy reporter
Low interest rates were working in Australia, and any further cuts would
also be effective, says Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Philip
Lowe.
Dr Lowe told a dinner packed with bank economists that unlike in other
countries where poor credit demand had rendered monetary stimulus largely
unproductive, Australian investors had responded to the RBA's easing.
The cash rate, which has been on hold at 2.5 per cent since August last
year, is expected to remain there at least until the middle of next year,
according to consensus forecasts.
Some outlying forecasters, however, have not ruled out a further cut next
year to address stubborn patchiness in the Australian economy.
According to global fund manager AllianceBernstein, the "collapse" of
commodity prices and a cooling property market in Australia could force the
RBA's hand next year.
Dr Lowe told the annual dinner of the Australian Business Economists that
such a cut, if needed, would work.
"[In Australia], we are seeing lower interest rates lead to higher asset
prices and that's inducing more real activity in the economy," he said.
"The problem that other countries have had is that mechanism is not
working, or at least not working very effectively.
"My judgement would be that if further interest rate reductions were
required, they would have some effect in stimulating economic activity."
Dr Lowe's comments – and a preceding speech – appeared to drive the
Australian dollar lower in international trading. Early on Wednesday, it was
fetching US85.23c, close to four and a half year lows, after a dip when Dr
Lowe's speech was published.
He said one of the limits to the usefulness of monetary easing was consumer
and investor confidence. As this wanes, the returns from interest rate cuts
diminish, he said.
"One of the reasons why there's a limit to the continuing benefits of
stimulatory monetary policy is you get to the point where the confidence effects
don't seem to be as strong as they were in normal times," Dr Lowe said.
"I don't think we're there yet, so we're in a fortunate position that if we
do need to lower interest rates, we can."
Rising house prices and investment in Australia were the fruits of the
RBA's current easing cycle, he said. He dismissed talk of a property bubble, but
said the central bank had singled out the build-up of risk in loans to
buy-to-let investors.
"We wanted the higher housing prices to make it more attractive for people
to undertake new construction, and by and large that's happening," he said.
"The issue is whether that process is going too far," he said.
"Our judgment so far is that what's happened there is broadly okay.
"The issue we've focused on is the increased investor loans, in particular
investor loans that are interest only. Our sense is that as a whole, those
portfolios have become a little more risky."
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