与美、欧股市呈明显对照行情,昨日中国股市大涨,创自8月份以来的新高。
主要受各方面的利好消息刺激,一方面是中国央行行长周小川称“深港通将与年内开通”,加之十三五计划的出台使得市场信心激增,中国股市又迎来久未见的牛市到来,昨日中国沪指大涨4.31%,其中金融股领涨。
伴随内陆牛市,香港恒生指数,香港中国H股,中国A股50远期也在出现大幅上行。盘面上中国各股仍有较大的上行空间,香港恒生指数有望上行挑战24300点;香港中国H股将可能有望上行至11500点;中国A股50已经涨过历史高位,有望继续上行挑战10800点。
技术图形
由于美联储耶伦昨日在其证词中表示美国经济良好的复苏态势使得12月份加息有更确定的可能性,美股与欧股市场受其影响而下行,这与中国股市的大涨形成了鲜明的反差。
而从整体经济形势上看,中国的宽松是经济转型期的宽松,是进一步扩大经济市场化的标志性举措。央行在10月份再次实行降息、将准的措施后,意味着释放出7千亿到8千亿人民币的资金流动量。虽然市场高呼“中国经济增长下行风险”与“潜在债务危机”等种种风险预警,但中国强大的经济基地是不可忽视的。
当经济增长模式逐步转向“消费引导型”后,将有可能带来新的消费增长模式,而金融业与服务业将有可能成为未来主要的支撑板块。
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