美国10月份ISM制造业采购经理人指数录得50.1,第二次触及下半年低位。但仍然处于50盛衰线以上。依旧受美元强势与能源价格下行影响,美国制造业受到打压。在18个领域调查中一半显示萎缩,其中包括: 金属、汽油与塑料生产。
美国ISM制造业PMI
数据来源:美国ISM
与上周末中国公布的制造业采购经理人指数有相似之处的是,美国10月份PMI数据构成中用工与库存量出现明显下滑,制造业雇用人数创自2009年低位;出口与进口量仍就表现萎缩,分别录得47.5与47.0,出口连续第五个月萎缩。出厂价格有小幅上行,较上月上涨1个百分点,但仍然是表现最差的部分。
从本次PMI数据中的积极因素来看,新订单数量较9月份又明显提升,由50.1上至 52.9,生产量也有明显提高,由51.8上升至52.9,利好工厂生产量的主要行业为汽车制造业。
美国第三季度GDP第二次估值仅录得1.5%, 主要受工厂库存量数据影响。
整体美国第三季度经济仍呈现疲软。虽然PMI与GDP并不是直接影响美联储加息决议的经济指标,但仍旧间接对其两项指标就业市场与通胀率产生侧面影响。虽然美联储示意12月份有望加息,但就目前经济数据来看其可能性并不很大。
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