在昨日美国联邦公开市场委员会公布了1月份议息会议内容，大部分会议成员认为当前国际经济形势仍然存在不确定性，金融风险压力有上行趋势，对于继续加息表示迟疑。由于加息预期减弱，全球股市与原油昨日再次受到支持出现大幅反弹，美元继续延续下行趋势。
美联储言辞偏显鸽派，加息或将放缓
会议成员主要对于全球经济形势表示不确定性，主要是出于对中国经济形势与原油价格下滑使得美国通胀率持续低位的担忧。 美联储主席耶伦在上周的证词会议中暗示，由于全球经济形势不为乐观，货币政策收紧可能会被推迟。美联储本年度预期加息4次，3 月份与6月份将是第一次加息的重要时间点。
但部分人仍然对于加息表示较为强硬的态度，认为美国劳动力市场复苏强劲， 美国经济显示稳步增长，并认为强势美元与原油价格并不会长期影响通胀率。当具体措施要依据未来的经济数据而定。
"Participants judged that the overall implication of these developments for the outlook for domestic economic activity was unclear, but they agreed that uncertainty had increased, and many saw these developments as increasing the downside risks to the outlook," - the FOMC Minutes 17th Feb, 2016
风险资产投资逐显抬头
自本周开始全球股市伴随原油价格形成三日连涨, 风险资产似乎逐步走出1月份的阴霾, 出现抄底迹象.
股市方面尤其为欧美各大股市均有大幅反弹， 美国标普指数3日连涨5.5%；德国指数30昨日再次上涨2.65%；澳洲指数200三日涨幅达0.8%, 但昨日有小幅回撤； 香港恒生指数在15日开盘后有明显反弹，但昨日又出现回撤迹象，收盘18766.03，三日涨幅0.5%。
原油方面， 沙特阿拉伯与俄罗斯初步达成减产意向, 但前提条件为伊朗等其他产油国同时形成减产, 但伊朗石油部长称“让伊朗减产是不符合逻辑的”。虽然关于原油减产谈判形成僵局, 但原油价格依旧呈现大幅反弹, 美国德克萨斯原油期货价格上涨1.55美元再次上破30美元, 英国布伦特原油期货价格上涨2.27美元, 涨幅7.05%。
美国标普指数500三日连涨，出现底部反弹迹象
数据来源：彭博社
是抄底还是逢高做空？
纽约的一位基金经理称：“近日风险资产的逐步回暖有可能是由于风险资产价格低廉，并且年头较年底时间更具有吸引力。对于一些基金经理来讲，这是一个逢低买入的时机。而波动依然存在，资产价值已经下滑较大，基本面上仍然未有根本性好转。原油价格始终地位运行，美联储仍然未给出明显态度，中国经济仍呈放缓趋势。”
2016年开端市场便呈急速下滑态势，根本原因是在于全球性的产能过剩与需求不足所致，而这种情况实际上是08危机后各国大力度宽松所遗留下的问题，对于债台高垒而建立起的资产与过剩的产能并没有与消费相匹配。无论是减产还是加息，都有可能影响到目前较为脆弱的经济形势，但也是解决根本问题的必经之旅。本年度金融市场仍然可能在这些转折时刻出现再度大幅震荡，风险资产现在还并没有触底。理性的投资者可能会购入国债等固定资产， 同时小仓位以购入廉价风险资产的组合投资方式。
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