昨日全球乳制品拍卖价格较前值再度下滑2.8%，是连续第四次下滑，平均乳制品价格下滑至2235美元/公吨。最重要的出口组成部分全脂奶粉价格下跌3.7%至1890美元/公吨，凝乳酶干酪素跌幅最大，其价格下跌11.5%至3852美元/公吨。脱脂奶粉价格下滑1.4%至1762美元/公吨。
受乳制品价格影响，纽币兑美元汇率在数日盘中整理后昨日再度下滑80余点，截至新西兰时间早晨8点36分(北京时间凌晨3点36分)纽币兑美元汇率跌至0.6564，有望继续下滑挑战0.64整数关口。
1月份，由于乳品价格的持续下跌，新西兰恒天然乳业已将2015-2016年奶品收购价格由4.60纽币/公斤下调至4.15纽币/公斤, 而本次的价格再度滑落有可能使其预期价格再度下调至4纽币/公斤, 与奶农收支平衡的理想价格5.4纽币相差甚远, 新西兰奶农可能面临连续两年乳品价格在低于5纽币/公斤的前景。
2016年2月16日全球乳品拍卖价格情况与价格走势
数据来源：Globaldairy trade
10年全球乳制品拍卖价格指数
数据来源：Globaldairy trade
荷兰合作银行在最近的农业商业前景展望报告中称，新西兰农业2016年面临不明朗的前景，乳品业可能会继去年再次面临压力。目前价格的薄弱可能会持续到2016-2017年季节。
但据芝加哥乳业专家Jon Spainhour表示，本次拍卖并没有差过市场的预期，他认为由于奶农将受价格压力减产，乳制品价格有望逐步触底。但AgriHQ乳品分析师Susan Kilsby认为，“目前市场整体上仍然呈现熊市，使得价格可能在2016年一直持续低迷”，“即时价格低廉可能引起短期反弹，但由于全球奶品供给量持续上涨，使得价格很难出现持续反弹”。
新西兰央行在1月份的议息会议中表示有再度实行宽松的预期，主要是由于中国经济形势及其他新兴市场的考虑 ，加之大宗商品与原油价格的低迷，全球金融市场大幅震荡，风险增加，全球的通胀率水平均持续低位，新西兰主要消费物价指数 （CPI）仍然低迷。
整体金融市场来看， 自2月份以来，股市与大宗商品均有反弹迹象，部分投资者或在猜测底部而进行抄底操作。 但由于全球各方面经济形势仍然处于风险期，主要是中国需求放缓与美联储加息使得债务危机仍然可见，复苏可能不会短时间内完成。
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